XRP has remained in a tight consolidation phase below the $3.00 mark throughout much of the second quarter, struggling to sustain momentum despite repeated attempts to break higher. At the time of writing, the asset trades at $2.17, reflecting a minor 0.32% dip over the past 24 hours. This price action continues a range-bound trend that has defined XRP’s movement since mid-April, as broader market volatility stabilizes and investors await fresh catalysts that could shape its trajectory in Q3.
Despite the sideways movement, key on-chain and technical indicators suggest that XRP may be preparing for a significant directional move. With whale sell-offs grinding to a halt and valuation metrics pointing to undervaluation, market sentiment appears to be shifting. If current trends hold, XRP could break out of its consolidation and retest its January highs—or potentially push toward new all-time highs.
XRP Undervaluation Signal: MVRV Z-Score at 2.13
One of the most telling indicators of XRP’s current market health is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score, which currently stands at 2.13. This metric helps assess whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued by comparing its market capitalization to the realized value—the average price at which all coins were last moved.
Historically, XRP enters overbought territory when the MVRV Z-score climbs between 3.45 and 6.72. In January, when XRP reached $3.25, the Z-score peaked at 6.65, followed by a sharp correction as profit-taking accelerated. A similar pattern emerged in March during a failed recovery attempt, where elevated Z-scores preceded price reversals.
Today’s reading of 2.13 indicates that XRP is no longer overvalued and may even be trading below fair value. This shift suggests that downward pressure from previous sell-offs has likely subsided. If investor confidence returns and accumulation intensifies, the stage could be set for a new upward cycle.
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Whales Stop Selling: Exchange Inflows Drop to Zero
Whale behavior continues to play a pivotal role in XRP’s price dynamics. Recent data from CryptoQuant reveals a dramatic drop in whale-to-exchange transactions, which have now fallen to zero—a stark contrast to just two days prior, when over 2,716 transactions were recorded.
This sudden halt in large-scale transfers to exchanges strongly suggests that major holders are no longer preparing to sell. Instead, they appear to be holding their positions, reducing immediate selling pressure and potentially stabilizing the price around the $2.17 level.
Such behavior often precedes bullish reversals, as reduced supply on exchanges limits available sell-side liquidity. When combined with growing demand, this imbalance can fuel rapid price appreciation.
Additionally, shifting macroeconomic expectations may be influencing whale sentiment. With increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve could begin cutting interest rates between July and September 2025, risk assets like cryptocurrencies are regaining appeal. Lower borrowing costs typically encourage capital rotation into higher-growth assets, potentially benefiting XRP and other digital currencies.
Bullish Technical Setup: CMF and MACD Flash Green Signals
Technical analysis further supports the possibility of an upcoming breakout. On the daily chart, two key indicators—the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)—have turned bullish.
The CMF has crossed above the zero line, indicating stronger buying pressure over the past 20 days. It is now approaching the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern, a classic bullish continuation formation. A confirmed breakout above this resistance could validate the start of a new uptrend.
Meanwhile, the MACD has generated a positive crossover, with the signal line crossing above the MACD line—another strong sign of building upward momentum.
If these technical patterns hold, XRP could first challenge resistance at $2.25**, followed by a move toward **$2.69, which aligns with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous decline. A sustained rally beyond this point could set the stage for a retest of $3.40, XRP’s peak from January 2025.
Should buying volume remain strong and whale selling remain dormant, a new all-time high is not out of reach by the end of Q3.
However, traders should remain cautious. A resurgence in whale activity or weakening overall market demand could reverse the trend. In such a scenario, XRP might fall back to support at $1.54, corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci level, where long-term holders may step in again.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does it mean when whale-to-exchange transfers drop to zero?
A: It means large holders are no longer moving their XRP to exchanges, reducing the likelihood of immediate selling. This often signals confidence in holding for future gains and can support price stability or growth.
Q: Is XRP undervalued according to on-chain data?
A: Yes, with an MVRV Z-score of 2.13—well below historical overbought levels—XRP appears undervalued relative to its realized value, suggesting potential for upside if demand increases.
Q: What are the key resistance levels for XRP?
A: The immediate resistance is at $2.25, followed by $2.69 (0.236 Fib). A confirmed breakout could open the path to $3.40 or higher.
Q: What would invalidate the current bullish outlook?
A: Renewed whale selling, especially large inflows to exchanges, or broader market weakness could reverse momentum and push XRP toward support at $1.54.
Q: How might Federal Reserve policy affect XRP?
A: Anticipated rate cuts in late 2025 could boost risk appetite, leading investors to reallocate funds into assets like cryptocurrencies, potentially driving up XRP’s price.
Q: What technical indicators suggest a breakout is near?
A: Both CMF and MACD are showing bullish crossovers, while price is forming a falling wedge—a pattern often followed by upward breakouts when confirmed with volume.
With on-chain data signaling accumulation, whales pausing sell-offs, and technical indicators aligning for a potential breakout, XRP appears to be at a pivotal juncture. While short-term consolidation persists below $2.20, the foundation for a move toward $3.40 is being laid.
Investors watching this space should monitor exchange inflows, volume trends, and macroeconomic developments closely. The next few weeks could determine whether XRP resumes its upward trajectory or enters another phase of corrective trading.
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