Solana [SOL] has finally stabilized after a network outage that disrupted operations a month ago. Since April, the blockchain has regained its reliability, processing transactions efficiently and restoring user confidence. Despite this technical recovery, SOL’s price performance remains lackluster, leaving traders cautious about its near-term outlook.
Recent data from AMBCrypto reveals a significant development: Solana’s 7-day NFT trading volume has surpassed both Ethereum [ETH] and Polygon [MATIC]. This milestone highlights Solana’s growing dominance in the NFT space, driven by low fees, fast transaction speeds, and a vibrant ecosystem of creators and collectors.
At the same time, Solana’s network revenue increased by 33.3% over the past month—a strong signal of on-chain activity and economic health. However, this positive momentum is being offset by a cooling in memecoin enthusiasm, which had previously fueled explosive trading volumes across decentralized exchanges (DEXs) built on Solana.
Declining DEX Volume and TVL Signal Short-Term Caution
The decline in memecoin speculation has led to reduced trading activity on Solana-based DEXs like Orca and Raydium. As a result, both trading volume and total value locked (TVL) have seen downward pressure. This shift suggests that while core infrastructure remains strong, speculative fervor—which often drives short-term price surges—is currently waning.
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This dynamic creates a mixed picture for Solana investors. On one hand, fundamental improvements in network performance and NFT adoption support long-term growth. On the other hand, the absence of speculative tailwinds makes it harder for SOL to break out of its current consolidation range.
Technical Analysis: Can SOL Overcome Key Resistance?
From a technical standpoint, Solana’s long-term trend remains bullish, supported by steady adoption and ecosystem expansion. However, short-term indicators suggest caution.
In April, SOL formed a series of lower highs and lower lows—a classic sign of bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 45, having spent most of the month below the neutral 50 level. This indicates sustained selling pressure and weak buying conviction.
Additionally, On-Balance Volume (OBV) is trending downward, suggesting that volume is aligning with price declines rather than recoveries. The OBV line is now approaching a key resistance zone, which could delay any meaningful upward movement unless buying volume picks up significantly.
The $160 Fair Value Gap: A Major Hurdle
One of the most critical technical levels for Solana is the fair value gap (FVG) around $160 (highlighted as a white box on many trading charts). This zone acted as strong support in March but has now flipped into resistance.
For SOL to resume an uptrend and target $180, it must first reclaim this $160 level. Until then, the market is likely to remain range-bound or face further downside pressure.
If bullish momentum fails to materialize, traders should watch for potential tests of Fibonacci retracement levels between $141.15 and $122.38. These levels represent areas where previous buying interest emerged and could serve as support in a pullback scenario.
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Key Factors That Could Propel SOL Toward $180
While current conditions are cautious, several catalysts could reignite investor interest and push Solana toward its $180 target:
- Resurgence in Memecoin Activity: If a new wave of viral tokens emerges on Solana—similar to past hits like BONK or WIF—trading volume and DEX activity could spike again.
- Increased Institutional Adoption: Growing interest from institutional players in Solana-based DeFi and NFT projects could bring sustained capital inflows.
- Network Upgrades and Scalability Improvements: Continued enhancements to Solana’s architecture may attract more developers and enterprises, strengthening its competitive edge against Ethereum and other Layer 1 blockchains.
- Broader Crypto Market Recovery: A rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum could lift the entire altcoin market, giving SOL the momentum needed to break through resistance.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the fair value gap (FVG) in Solana's price chart?
A: The FVG around $160 is a price zone where there was minimal trading activity due to a rapid move. It previously acted as support in March but now serves as resistance. Reclaiming this area is crucial for any bullish breakout.
Q: Why is Solana’s RSI below 50?
A: An RSI below 50 indicates bearish momentum. For Solana, this reflects weak buying pressure and ongoing profit-taking or selling by traders during April.
Q: Can SOL reach $180 in 2025?
A: Yes, but only if key resistance at $160 is broken and sustained institutional or speculative demand returns. Strong ecosystem growth and macro crypto trends will also play a role.
Q: How does NFT volume affect Solana’s price?
A: Higher NFT trading increases transaction fees and network usage, boosting revenue and visibility. This often leads to increased investor confidence and buying activity.
Q: What happens if SOL drops below $141?
A: A breakdown below $141 could trigger further selling toward the next Fibonacci level near $122.38. However, strong support may form if on-chain fundamentals remain healthy.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Solana?
A: It depends on your risk tolerance. With SOL consolidating near key technical levels, patient investors might wait for confirmation of a reversal above $160 before entering new positions.
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Final Outlook: A Pivotal Moment for Solana
Solana stands at a crossroads. Its technological foundation is stronger than ever, with improved stability and rising NFT dominance. Yet, market sentiment remains cautious due to fading memecoin momentum and technical bearishness.
To reach the $180 target, Solana needs more than just network reliability—it requires renewed investor enthusiasm and sustained buying pressure. Breaking above the $160 fair value gap would be the first major step toward that goal.
Traders should monitor RSI trends, OBV changes, and on-chain metrics closely. Any signs of volume-backed reversal could signal the start of a new bullish phase.
In the evolving crypto landscape of 2025, Solana continues to prove its resilience. Whether it ascends to new highs or faces further consolidation will depend on how quickly confidence returns to its ecosystem.
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