The cryptocurrency market has long been associated with the narrative of a four-year cycle — each bull run supposedly triggered by Bitcoin’s halving event. However, recent market behavior suggests that this simplistic view may no longer hold true. Despite 2024 being a Bitcoin halving year, many investors are questioning whether we're truly in a bull market. The answer, backed by on-chain data and macroeconomic trends, points to a more nuanced reality: we are not yet in a super bull market, but one could be set to launch in 2025 or 2026.
Why This Isn’t a Super Bull Market Yet
A recent Glassnode weekly report highlighted a chart showing Bitcoin’s 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of transaction volume (Tx Volume) from October 2023 onward. At first glance, this data appears strikingly similar to the Tx Volume pattern seen between October 2020 and September 2021 — a period that marked the heart of the last major bull run.
This visual similarity has led some analysts and retail investors to conclude that we’re already in the middle of a massive bull cycle. But appearances can be deceiving.
👉 Discover what on-chain metrics really say about the next crypto bull run.
The Illusion Behind Transaction Volume
The key issue lies in what’s driving transaction volume today versus previous cycles. Since late 2023, there has been an explosive rise in Taproot Witness transactions, primarily fueled by the emergence of Bitcoin ordinals, inscriptions, and runes. These are non-financial, data-layer activities that bloat transaction counts without reflecting actual economic throughput or speculative investment demand.
At its peak, inscription-related activity accounted for up to 41.8% of total Bitcoin transaction volume — a phenomenon entirely absent during the 2020–2021 bull market. This means that raw Tx Volume is now a distorted metric, making historical comparisons misleading.
To see through the noise, we need to look at miner revenue from fees, which reflects real user competition to get transactions confirmed.
Miner Fees Tell a Different Story
During the 2020–2021 bull market, miner fees surged as demand for block space increased dramatically. At the peak, daily fees exceeded $50 million, driven by DeFi activity, NFT mints, and speculative trading.
In contrast, despite high transaction counts in 2023–2024, miner fee levels have remained relatively modest. Even during spikes linked to inscription frenzies, the underlying base fee level — excluding temporary bubbles — is only slightly above bear market averages and far below previous bull market highs.
This indicates that while there's activity, it lacks the broad-based financial intensity characteristic of a true bull market.
Exchange Trading Volumes Show Seasonal Trends — Not Sustained Growth
Another critical indicator is spot trading volume across major crypto exchanges. From November 2022 to mid-2024, these volumes have followed a clear seasonal rhythm:
- A bump in Q4 (October–December), often tied to year-end optimism and institutional positioning.
- Another rise in Q1 (January–March), possibly influenced by post-halving anticipation and new capital deployment.
But crucially, there has been no sustained upward trend in overall trading volume. Instead, we’ve seen repeated peaks and troughs without breakout momentum — a hallmark of seasonal movements rather than structural bull market growth.
This supports the idea that the rally from late 2023 to early 2024 was not a full-blown bull run, but rather:
- A post-bear market recovery
- Combined with seasonal buying patterns
- Amplified by speculative interest in new asset classes like BRC-20 tokens and runes
Debunking the “Halving = Bull Market” Myth
For years, investors have repeated the mantra: "Bitcoin halves every four years → price goes up." But correlation isn’t causation.
Historically, Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle coincided with favorable macroeconomic conditions, particularly the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy cycle. Bitcoin was born after the 2008 financial crisis, and each subsequent halving occurred near the end of tightening cycles — just as the Fed began cutting rates.
Let’s break it down:
| Halving Year | Fed Policy Context |
|---|---|
| 2012 | Post-QE1 recovery phase |
| 2016 | End of rate hike cycle; pause before easing |
| 2020 | Pandemic stimulus → massive liquidity injection |
In every case, abundant liquidity met reduced Bitcoin issuance — creating perfect conditions for price appreciation.
However, this cycle is different.
The Fed’s Delayed Pivot Shifts Everything
In 2024, although Bitcoin underwent its fourth halving, the Federal Reserve has delayed its rate-cutting cycle due to persistent inflation. Unlike past halvings, which aligned with easing monetary policy, the current environment remains relatively tight.
👉 See how macro trends shape crypto cycles — and where we go next.
As a result, the typical "halving rally" has been muted. Instead of a super bull market launching in 2024, we’re likely seeing only a preparatory phase — setting the stage for something bigger.
The Real Super Bull Market Could Hit in 2025–2026
Here’s the good news: a delayed Fed pivot doesn’t cancel the bull market — it postpones it.
Once inflation stabilizes and central banks begin cutting rates again — likely in late 2024 or early 2025 — global liquidity will start expanding. That influx of capital typically flows into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
When that coincides with:
- The psychological impact of the completed halving
- Reduced sell pressure from miners (due to lower block rewards)
- Renewed institutional interest
- Potential approval and growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs
…then we could see the conditions for a true super bull market emerge.
Historically, the strongest price action has occurred 6–18 months after a halving, especially when supported by accommodative monetary policy. If the Fed begins cutting rates in Q1 2025, the rocket could launch by mid-to-late 2025 and extend into 2026.
Key Takeaways
- We are not currently in a super bull market.
- Recent price action is driven by seasonality and niche speculation (e.g., inscriptions), not broad financial adoption.
- On-chain metrics like miner fees and clean transaction volume don’t support a full bull narrative yet.
- The delay in the Fed’s monetary easing has pushed the likely start of the next major rally to 2025–2026.
- When macro conditions align with reduced supply (post-halving), expect explosive momentum.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Was there a bull market in 2023–2024?
A: There was a significant price recovery and increased market activity, but it lacked the sustained volume growth and macro support of a true bull market. It’s best described as a combination of seasonal trends and speculative hype around new Bitcoin-based assets.
Q: Does the Bitcoin halving always lead to a bull run?
A: Not necessarily. While past bull markets followed halvings, the real driver has often been concurrent loose monetary policy from central banks. Without supportive macro conditions, the halving alone isn’t enough to trigger massive price increases.
Q: What indicators should I watch for the next bull market?
A: Focus on declining miner reserves, rising spot ETF inflows, increasing stablecoin supply (especially on exchanges), falling real interest rates, and Fed rate-cut signals. These are stronger leading indicators than transaction volume alone.
Q: Could another black swan event delay the bull market further?
A: Yes. Geopolitical instability, unexpected inflation spikes, or regulatory crackdowns could prolong tight monetary policy. However, such events often create buying opportunities once resolved.
Q: Are ordinals and runes beneficial for Bitcoin’s ecosystem?
A: They increase network usage and developer interest, but also raise concerns about block space congestion and centralization risks. Their long-term value depends on whether they evolve into sustainable use cases beyond speculation.
Q: Should I sell if prices rise in late 2025?
A: Timing the top is extremely difficult. A better strategy is dollar-cost averaging and setting profit targets based on your risk profile. Many investors benefit most by staying invested through the full cycle rather than trying to exit perfectly.
By understanding both on-chain dynamics and macroeconomic forces, investors can avoid being misled by surface-level data and position themselves for the next major move — which may still be just over the horizon.