The question of how much Bitcoin is truly available for sale is central to understanding market dynamics, price movements, and investor behavior. While the total circulating supply of Bitcoin exceeds 19 million, only a fraction of that supply is actively participating in price discovery at any given time. By analyzing on-chain data, exchange flows, and holder behavior, we can uncover the real volume of Bitcoin that’s liquid and potentially up for grabs.
This article explores the concept of "hot supply," regional accumulation trends, and short-term holder psychology to answer the critical question: how many Bitcoins are actually for sale?
Regional Market Sentiment and Exchange Flows
Market sentiment varies significantly across regions, especially between on-shore (regulated) and off-shore exchanges. Understanding these differences helps identify where demand is strongest and how capital moves in response to regulatory or macroeconomic events.
On-Shore vs. Off-Shore Exchange Behavior
To assess regional demand, we analyze net BTC flows into and out of major exchanges:
- On-Shore (US): Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini
- Off-Shore (Asia): Binance, OKX, Huobi
Historically, during bull markets and crisis events like the LUNA collapse or FTX bankruptcy, most exchanges saw large net outflows as investors moved to self-custody. However, Binance often showed the opposite trend—significant inflows during market downturns—possibly due to users transferring assets from compromised platforms to what they perceive as a more secure or dominant exchange.
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When aggregating monthly net flows by region, a clear pattern emerges:
- From November 2022 to January 2023, both regions experienced net outflows, indicating accumulation during the market bottom phase.
- Since early 2023, off-shore exchanges have seen sustained net inflows, suggesting traders are holding or preparing to trade in Asian markets.
- Meanwhile, on-shore US exchanges show continued net outflows, reflecting either accumulation or neutral positioning by American investors.
As of the latest data, off-shore exchanges are seeing net outflows of 37.7k BTC per month, while on-shore buying pressure has weakened to just 3.2k BTC/month. This shift indicates that while institutional interest in the US is rising—spurred by spot Bitcoin ETF filings—actual buying momentum remains stronger in Asia.
Measuring Demand Through Hot Supply
Supply scarcity alone doesn’t drive prices; it’s the interplay between scarce supply and active demand that creates upward pressure. To measure this demand, we introduce a powerful on-chain metric: Hot Supply.
What Is Hot Supply?
Hot Supply refers to the most liquid portion of Bitcoin’s circulating supply—coins that are actively traded and highly likely to be sold. It’s a subset of Short-Term Holders (STHs), defined as coins moved within the last 155 days.
More specifically:
Hot Supply = Coins with a velocity ≥ 1, meaning each coin moves on average at least once per day.
We calculate velocity using:
Velocity_i = Daily Volume_i / Supply Size_iData shows that:
- Coins younger than 1 week have velocity >1
- Coins younger than 1 month drop below velocity = 1
- Perpetual futures open interest also correlates closely with hot supply activity
This confirms that only the newest, most liquid coins are truly “in play” during price discovery.
How Much Bitcoin Is Actually Available for Sale?
The size of Hot Supply fluctuates but historically ranges between 3.5% and 11.3% of total supply:
- Median: ~670,000 BTC
- Peak: Up to 2.2 million BTC
For context:
- Lost coins: ~1.46 million BTC (7.2% of supply)
- Perpetual futures open interest: ~472,000 BTC
- Current Hot Supply: ~511,000 BTC
Combined, spot Hot Supply and perpetual open interest total around 983,000 BTC (~$29.5B at $30k), representing the effective pool of Bitcoin that could be sold in the near term—with slightly less than half being actual spot BTC.
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This means that despite over 19 million BTC in circulation, fewer than 1 million coins are truly liquid and responsive to market demand at any moment.
Short-Term Holder Psychology and Market Support
Short-Term Holders (STHs) are crucial to understanding near-term price support and resistance levels. Their cost basis often acts as a psychological floor during corrections.
Break-Even Levels as Accumulation Zones
In 2023, Bitcoin price twice dipped to meet the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, around $25k–$26k, triggering strong buying interest. This suggests a shift in market psychology:
- In 2022’s bear market, break-even levels were seen as exit opportunities.
- In 2023, they’ve become accumulation zones, where investors view fair value as a chance to build positions.
The STH-MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio currently stands at 1.12, meaning short-term holders are collectively up 12% on average. Historically:
- MVRV > 1.2 (~$33.2k) increases correction risk
- MVRV > 1.4 (~$38.7k) signals overheating
We’re not there yet—indicating room for upside before profit-taking intensifies.
Spot Seller Exhaustion Signals Strength
The STH-SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) shows when short-term sellers are exhausted. Using 90-day standard deviation bands, we see repeated dips below the lower band—especially at the $25.1k low—followed by rapid rebounds.
These moments indicate:
- Panic selling has ended
- Sellers have capitulated
- Buyers are stepping in aggressively
The recent recovery above $30k confirms this dynamic: short-term pain led to long-term accumulation.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What percentage of Bitcoin is actively traded?
A: Only about 3.5% to 11.3% of total supply—known as "Hot Supply"—is highly liquid and actively traded at any given time.
Q: Are more Bitcoins being held or sold in 2023?
A: Net outflows from major exchanges suggest strong accumulation, especially on off-shore platforms. However, inflows into perpetual futures indicate active trading interest persists.
Q: Can ETF demand absorb large sell-offs like Mt. Gox?
A: Yes. Historical demand surges have involved 250k–500k BTC per quarter—enough to absorb potential sell-offs from Mt. Gox (137k BTC) and US government holdings (204k BTC).
Q: How does velocity affect Bitcoin liquidity?
A: High velocity (>1) means coins move frequently and are more likely to be sold. Low velocity indicates holding behavior and reduced market pressure.
Q: Why do Asian exchanges show stronger inflows than US ones?
A: Regulatory uncertainty in the US has dampened exchange-based trading, while Asian markets remain active hubs for spot and derivatives activity.
Q: What does STH-MVRV tell us about future price action?
A: With MVRV at 1.12, short-term holders are in modest profit. A rise above 1.2 could trigger selling pressure, but current levels suggest sustainable upward momentum.
Final Thoughts
While nearly 19 million Bitcoins exist, only a small fraction—less than 1 million—is truly available for sale at any time. This "hot" supply, combined with futures exposure, forms the core of daily price discovery.
Regional flows show Asia leading accumulation in 2023, though US demand may be reviving with ETF applications. Meanwhile, short-term holder behavior reflects a healthier market mindset: viewing break-even not as an exit, but as an entry point.
As institutional interest grows and liquidity tightens, understanding who holds what—and how likely they are to sell—will be key to navigating the next phase of Bitcoin’s evolution.
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