The cryptocurrency market is showing signs of renewed momentum, and at the center of the action stands Coinbase (COIN) — one of the most closely watched bellwethers for broader crypto sentiment. As Bitcoin retests the critical psychological and technical resistance level near $100,000, Coinbase is flashing powerful technical signals that could signal the beginning of a new bull phase.
With the company’s quarterly earnings report on the horizon and recent strategic moves like the acquisition of Deribit, a leading crypto derivatives exchange, investor interest is surging. But beyond corporate developments, it’s the underlying price action and technical structure that are capturing traders’ attention.
Coinbase’s Technical Setup: A Bullish Reversal in Progress?
Looking at the daily chart, COIN found strong support around **$150** in September 2024 — a level it revisited in early April 2025 after a sharp correction. This dip completed a nearly **60% retracement** from its December 2024 high of $350, aligning with textbook bullish correction patterns.
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What makes this rebound significant is the emergence of a bullish divergence on the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) during the April 2025 low. While price made a new short-term low, the PPO failed to follow suit — a classic sign of weakening downward momentum and potential reversal.
Over the past four weeks, COIN has reclaimed its 50-day moving average, a key short-term trend indicator. The next major milestone? A sustained breakout above the 200-day moving average, which would confirm a shift from bearish to bullish market structure.
This isn’t just noise — it’s a repeatable pattern seen in previous cycles. When major assets hold key support levels after deep corrections, especially with momentum divergence, they often become launchpads for strong rallies.
Weekly Chart Confirms: Support Holds at Key Fibonacci Level
Zooming out to the weekly timeframe reveals even stronger confirmation. The dual lows formed in September 2024 and April 2025 align almost perfectly with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2023–2024 bull run.
This Fibonacci level is widely respected by institutional and algorithmic traders alike, making it a high-probability zone for reversals. When multiple technical factors converge — such as horizontal support, moving averages, and momentum indicators — the reliability of the signal increases significantly.
Moreover, the weekly PPO delivered a bullish crossover shortly after the initial September 2024 bottom. Now, as price regains strength, another bullish signal appears imminent. This kind of long-term momentum shift often precedes extended uptrends.
Adding to the bullish case: the 150-week moving average, a robust gauge of long-term trend direction, sits right beneath the recent double-bottom formation. This confluence of support suggests that even if volatility persists, the risk/reward profile favors upside over time.
Why Coinbase Is a Proxy for Bitcoin’s Health
Investing in Coinbase is effectively a leveraged bet on Bitcoin adoption and market activity. As the largest U.S.-listed crypto exchange, its revenue model thrives on increased trading volume, custody services, and institutional inflows — all of which accelerate during bull markets.
And right now, Bitcoin itself is sending strong signals.
In April 2025, BTC also formed a bullish divergence at its local low, followed by a powerful rally back toward $100,000 — a level not seen since February 2025. Breaking this ceiling could open the door to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin has now reclaimed all major moving averages on both daily and weekly charts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered overbought territory, typically seen during strong momentum phases. While overbought conditions don’t necessarily mean an immediate pullback, they do reflect intense buying pressure — a hallmark of healthy bull runs.
Historically, when Bitcoin sustains moves above key resistance zones with rising volume and momentum, related equities like COIN, MicroStrategy (MSTR), and blockchain ETFs tend to follow suit — often with amplified gains.
What’s Next? Scenarios for the Road Ahead
There are two primary scenarios shaping up:
- Bullish Breakout: If Bitcoin successfully clears $100,000 and reclaims the December 2024 – January 2025 highs, it would confirm a resumption of the larger uptrend. In this case, Coinbase could target previous resistance levels near $350–$400 or even higher.
- Consolidation Phase: Alternatively, markets may enter a sideways phase to digest recent gains. Even so, holding above $150 on COIN would maintain structural integrity and keep bullish hopes alive.
Either way, the current setup suggests we're at a pivotal moment — not just for Coinbase, but for the entire crypto ecosystem.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is Coinbase considered a proxy for Bitcoin?
A: Coinbase generates most of its revenue from trading fees and crypto-related services. When Bitcoin rallies, trading volumes spike, institutional interest grows, and user onboarding accelerates — all directly boosting Coinbase’s top line.
Q: What does a PPO bullish divergence mean?
A: It means that while price makes a lower low, the momentum oscillator (PPO) makes a higher low. This disconnect suggests sellers are losing control and buyers may soon take over — often preceding strong upward moves.
Q: How reliable is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level?
A: Known as the “golden ratio,” this level is widely monitored by traders globally. Assets that find support near 61.8% after strong trends often resume their original direction, especially when confirmed by volume and other indicators.
Q: Does Coinbase’s acquisition of Deribit matter technically?
A: While acquisitions impact fundamentals more than charts, gaining control of a top-tier derivatives platform strengthens Coinbase’s competitive edge — potentially increasing future cash flows and attracting more active traders.
Q: What should investors watch next?
A: Key levels include Bitcoin holding above $95,000 and COIN breaking above its 200-day moving average. Earnings reports, regulatory updates, and macroeconomic data will also influence sentiment.
Final Thoughts: A New Bull Cycle Brewing?
The stars may be aligning for a renewed surge in crypto markets. With Bitcoin challenging $100,000, Coinbase stabilizing at critical support, and momentum indicators turning positive across timeframes, the foundation for a new leg up appears to be forming.
While no rally is without risk — especially in volatile markets — the current technical landscape offers a compelling opportunity for those willing to take a strategic position.
Whether you're tracking price patterns, monitoring momentum shifts, or evaluating macro trends, now is the time to stay alert. The next phase of the crypto bull run might already be underway.
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