Hyperliquid (HYPE) has captured renewed market attention after a strong 25% rebound in the past week, lifting the token from its recent low of $12.06 to trade above $16. This recovery follows a steep 55% correction between February 18 and March 13, which saw HYPE drop from $27.53—a level that once signaled strong bullish momentum. While the recent price action suggests a potential reversal, technical indicators are sending conflicting signals, leaving traders cautious about the sustainability of this rally.
HYPE’s Bearish Trend Shows Signs of Reversal
On the daily chart, HYPE carved out a clear bearish pattern over the past two months, marked by a series of lower highs and lower lows. The drop to $12.06 not only erased most of its late-year gains but also triggered concerns about the health of its uptrend. However, last week brought a shift in momentum when the token broke out of its descending channel—a move often interpreted as a sign of renewed buyer interest.
Since the breakout, HYPE has posted consistent daily gains, with only two red candles interrupting the upward trajectory. This sustained buying pressure has reinforced a short-term bullish narrative. Yet, appearances can be deceiving. Despite the price recovery, key on-chain and technical indicators suggest that broader market conviction remains fragile.
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Chaikin Money Flow Hints at Weak Buying Pressure
One of the most telling indicators in HYPE’s current setup is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which remains negative at -0.30. The CMF measures the balance between buying (accumulation) and selling (distribution) pressure over a given period. A negative reading indicates that selling volume is still dominating, even as prices rise—a classic sign of bearish divergence.
This divergence raises an important question: Is the current rally built on genuine demand or merely short-term speculation? Historically, rallies accompanied by negative CMF tend to stall or reverse unless buying pressure strengthens. For HYPE, this means that without a shift toward positive accumulation, the rebound could struggle to gain long-term traction.
Bullish Momentum Seen in MACD and Moving Averages
In contrast to the CMF, other technical indicators paint a more optimistic picture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive on the daily timeframe, signaling increasing bullish momentum. More notably, the 12-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed above the 26-period EMA—a configuration known as a "golden cross."
The golden cross is widely regarded as a strong bullish signal, often preceding extended uptrends. When combined with a positive MACD histogram, it suggests that short-term momentum is accelerating in favor of buyers. If this momentum holds, it could provide the necessary fuel for HYPE to push toward key resistance levels.
However, confirmation is critical. For the bullish case to solidify, the CMF must follow suit and turn positive. Until then, traders should remain cautious of a potential false breakout.
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HYPE Price Forecast: Two Scenarios Ahead
Given the conflicting signals, a balanced analysis requires evaluating both bullish and bearish possibilities using Fibonacci retracement levels and technical confluence.
Bullish Scenario: Rally Toward $22 Could Resume
For HYPE to continue its upward trajectory, supporting indicators must align with price action. Specifically, a reversal in CMF from negative to positive territory—especially if it emerges from an oversold level below -0.20—would confirm stronger accumulation.
If buying pressure intensifies, the first target lies at $18.35, corresponding to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. A breakout and close above this level could trigger further buying, potentially pushing HYPE toward $22.23—the 0.382 Fib level and a psychological resistance zone.
This scenario would validate the recent breakout and suggest that the broader uptrend from late 2024 is resuming after a healthy correction.
Bearish Scenario: Return to $12 or Lower
On the flip side, if bullish momentum fades and the MACD begins to contract, HYPE could re-enter downtrend territory. A breakdown below the 0.786 Fibonacci level would signal weakness and increase the risk of losing critical support.
Should selling pressure accelerate—confirmed by a deepening negative CMF—the price could revisit its recent swing low of $12.06. In a worst-case scenario with heightened bearish sentiment, HYPE might even dip into single-digit territory, erasing all gains from its previous rally.
This outcome would reaffirm the dominance of long-term sellers and delay any meaningful recovery.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What caused HYPE’s 55% price drop in early 2025?
A: The decline was primarily driven by broader market corrections, reduced trading volume on decentralized platforms, and profit-taking after a strong late-2024 rally. External factors like regulatory uncertainty also contributed to investor caution.
Q: What does a negative CMF mean for HYPE’s price?
A: A negative Chaikin Money Flow indicates that selling volume exceeds buying volume, even if prices are rising. This divergence suggests weak institutional or long-term investor support and increases the risk of a pullback.
Q: What is a golden cross and why does it matter?
A: A golden cross occurs when the 12-day EMA crosses above the 26-day EMA, signaling rising short-term momentum. It’s considered a reliable bullish indicator, especially when confirmed by other metrics like MACD.
Q: Can HYPE reach $22 again?
A: Yes, but only if buying pressure strengthens and key indicators like CMF turn positive. A sustained move above $18.35 would improve the odds of retesting $22.23.
Q: What price levels should traders watch for HYPE?
A: Key levels include immediate support at $14.80 and $12.06, and resistance at $18.35 and $22.23. A close above $18 could signal bullish continuation.
Q: Is now a good time to buy HYPE?
A: While the rebound is promising, mixed signals suggest caution. Traders may consider waiting for confirmation—such as a positive CMF shift or breakout above $18—before entering new positions.
Final Thoughts
The recent 25% rebound in Hyperliquid (HYPE) has reignited interest in the asset, but technical divergence warns against premature optimism. While price action and MACD suggest potential for further upside, the persistently negative CMF highlights underlying weakness in buying pressure.
Traders should monitor the convergence of key indicators—particularly whether CMF follows MACD into positive territory—as the deciding factor for HYPE’s next major move. Whether it resumes its climb toward $22 or falls back toward $12 will depend on market conviction in the coming days.
Staying informed with real-time data and using robust analytical tools can make all the difference in navigating this volatile phase.
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