The number of Bitcoin addresses holding at least one BTC—commonly known as wholecoiners—has remained above one million for 13 consecutive months, signaling sustained confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value. This milestone, first reached in May 2023, reflects growing resilience in holder sentiment despite price volatility. Even as Bitcoin pulled back from its all-time highs, the wholecoiner count stabilized around 1,010,800, indicating strong conviction among long-term investors.
This metric is more than just a number—it’s a behavioral indicator of market psychology. Wholecoiners often represent committed holders who view Bitcoin as digital gold or a long-term store of value. Their persistence through market cycles suggests a maturing ecosystem where belief in Bitcoin's future remains intact.
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Wholecoiners: A Benchmark for Long-Term Confidence
A "wholecoiner" refers to any wallet address that holds one or more full Bitcoin units. While this may seem like a basic classification, it carries significant weight in on-chain analysis. These holders typically exhibit lower turnover rates compared to smaller investors (often called “fractional holders”), making them a reliable proxy for market confidence.
In May 2023, the wholecoiner count crossed the symbolic one-million threshold when Bitcoin was trading near $27,000. By January 1, 2025, the number peaked at over 1,024,000—an all-time high. As of now, it remains above 1.01 million, marking the 13th straight month above this benchmark.
This sustained level is notable because it occurred even after Bitcoin’s price correction from its peak above $65,000. The fact that wholecoiner numbers did not decline sharply during the pullback suggests that many investors see current levels as an accumulation zone rather than a signal to exit.
“When wholecoiners hold steady despite price drops, it often means the market perceives underlying strength,” says a blockchain analyst familiar with on-chain trends.
Their behavior mirrors that of institutional-grade investors who focus on macroeconomic catalysts—such as monetary policy shifts, adoption trends, and regulatory clarity—rather than short-term price swings.
Can Wholecoiner Growth Predict Market Bottoms?
Historically, surges in wholecoiner counts have coincided with market bottoms. During the brutal 2022 bear market—when Bitcoin lost over 65% of its value—the number of wholecoiners actually increased significantly.
Two key events triggered this rise:
- June 2022 market crash: Following the collapse of major crypto lenders and stablecoins.
- November 2022 FTX collapse: After the exchange filed for bankruptcy, triggering widespread panic selling.
Yet, amid the chaos, new wallets accumulated full Bitcoins. This counter-cyclical behavior hints at strategic buying by informed participants—often referred to as “whales” or deep-pocketed investors—who recognized undervaluation.
Looking back, the November 2022 low, when Bitcoin dipped to around $15,500, marked the bottom of the last bear cycle. The spike in wholecoiner growth during that period could be interpreted as a bottom-formation signal—a quiet accumulation phase preceding the next bull run.
While not a standalone predictor, the wholecoiner trend adds valuable context when combined with other on-chain metrics like exchange outflows, hash rate stability, and realized price.
Options Market Bets Point to Q4 2025 Breakout
Beyond on-chain data, derivatives markets are also flashing bullish signals. In the Bitcoin options market, open interest (OI) reveals where traders expect price action to unfold.
For contracts expiring in September 2025, the strike price with the highest open interest is $90,000**. For **December 2025** expiry, the peak OI shifts even higher—to **$100,000.
This means that the largest concentration of bets is positioned around these levels, suggesting strong market anticipation that Bitcoin will surpass $90K by September and potentially reach six figures by year-end.
However, it's important to note that options data reflects expectations, not guarantees. Traders use these instruments for hedging as much as speculation. Still, the skew toward higher strike prices indicates growing optimism about Bitcoin’s trajectory in late 2025—possibly fueled by anticipated macro developments like Fed rate cuts, increased institutional adoption, or ETF inflows.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a wholecoiner?
A wholecoiner is a Bitcoin wallet address that holds at least one full BTC. These holders are often seen as long-term believers in Bitcoin’s value proposition due to the high cost of acquiring a full coin.
Why does the wholecoiner count matter?
The number of wholecoiners serves as a proxy for long-term investor confidence. Sustained growth or stability in this metric—even during price dips—suggests strong conviction and potential accumulation activity.
Does a rising wholecoiner count mean a price rally is coming?
Not always. While increases often coincide with market bottoms or early bull phases, they should be analyzed alongside other indicators like trading volume, exchange flows, and macroeconomic conditions.
How reliable are Bitcoin options markets in predicting price?
Options markets reflect trader sentiment and expectations but aren't foolproof. High open interest at certain strike prices can indicate potential targets, but actual price movement depends on broader market dynamics.
Is holding one Bitcoin still significant today?
Yes. Given Bitcoin’s high value per unit, owning a full BTC remains a milestone for many investors. It symbolizes financial commitment and access to self-custody without relying on fractional platforms.
Could Bitcoin reach $100,000 by 2025?
Many analysts and traders believe so. Catalysts such as spot ETF approvals, halving supply shocks, and global macro uncertainty continue to support bullish outlooks for Bitcoin reaching six figures by late 2025.
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Final Thoughts
The persistence of over one million wholecoiners underscores a fundamental shift in how Bitcoin is perceived—not just as a speculative asset, but as a durable store of value. Combined with bullish positioning in the options market for Q4 2025, the stage appears set for another potential breakout phase.
While no single metric guarantees future performance, the convergence of on-chain strength, strategic accumulation during downturns, and rising derivative bets on higher prices paints an encouraging picture for Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months.
As always, investors should conduct thorough research and consider risk management strategies when navigating volatile markets. But one thing is clear: confidence in Bitcoin isn’t fading—it’s consolidating.