The idea of a Solana ETF was once considered far-fetched—especially when Solana (SOL) was trading near a 90% drop from its all-time high of $260. But today, the conversation has shifted dramatically. With the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in early 2024, speculation around a Solana ETF approval date has gained serious momentum.
Could Solana be next in line? And if so, what does that mean for investors, the crypto market, and the future of decentralized finance?
Let’s dive into the latest developments, challenges, and potential impacts of a spot Solana ETF.
What Are Solana ETFs?
An exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to Solana would allow investors to gain exposure to SOL’s price performance without directly owning or storing the cryptocurrency. After the landmark approvals of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11, 2024, and Ethereum ETFs on May 23, 2024, investment firms began exploring similar products for other major digital assets.
Two prominent players—VanEck and 21Shares—have filed applications for spot Solana ETFs in the United States. Both companies already have approved Bitcoin ETFs, giving them credibility and experience navigating the SEC’s regulatory landscape.
VanEck Solana ETF
On June 27, 2024, VanEck became the first U.S.-based firm to file for a Solana ETF. The proposed fund, structured as the VanEck Solana Trust, aims to track the spot price of SOL and list on the Cboe BZX Exchange if approved.
Matt Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Asset Research, has publicly argued that SOL functions like Bitcoin and Ethereum—used primarily for transaction fees and computational power on its blockchain. This positions it as a commodity rather than a security, a key distinction under U.S. securities law.
Sigel also noted that shifting political winds could favor crypto regulation reform. With speculation about Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance in a potential 2025 administration, VanEck sees an opening—even suggesting that current SEC Chair Gary Gensler may step down soon, paving the way for more favorable oversight.
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21Shares Solana ETF
Just one day later, on June 28, 2024, 21Shares followed suit with its own S-1 filing for a spot Solana ETF. Like VanEck, it plans to list on Cboe pending SEC approval.
Notably, 21Shares already offers a Solana Staking ETP in Europe, which tracks SOL’s price while reinvesting staking rewards. That product currently manages nearly $811 million in assets, demonstrating strong international demand.
While no management fee has been disclosed yet for the U.S. version, 21Shares emphasizes its mission to bring accessible, crypto-native financial products to mainstream investors.
Challenges Facing Solana ETF Approval
Despite growing interest, several significant hurdles stand between Solana and ETF approval.
Regulatory Hurdles
The SEC has historically treated digital assets with caution. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are widely viewed as commodities, Solana is still classified by the SEC as a security—a major roadblock.
This classification stems from lawsuits against exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, where the SEC alleged that tokens including SOL were unregistered securities. The agency uses the Howey Test to determine whether an asset involves an investment contract, but applying this test to decentralized networks remains legally ambiguous.
Moreover, regulators often look for “sufficient decentralization” before treating a token as non-security. Whether Solana meets this threshold is still debated.
Political Uncertainty
The 2024 U.S. presidential election adds another layer of uncertainty. A victory by Donald Trump, known for his pro-digital asset policies, could accelerate crypto-friendly reforms. Conversely, continued leadership under Joe Biden or Kamala Harris may maintain strict regulatory scrutiny.
As Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas pointed out, November 2024 could be a turning point, with election results potentially reshaping the SEC’s approach to crypto innovation.
Lack of a Regulated Futures Market
Unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, Solana does not have a liquid, regulated futures market in the U.S. The SEC has repeatedly stated that such markets help prevent manipulation in spot ETFs. Without this safeguard, approval becomes less likely—though SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has suggested spot ETFs could proceed even without futures.
Network Reliability Concerns
Past network outages and congestion events on Solana have raised questions about its resilience. While the ecosystem has rebounded strongly—especially with rising popularity of meme coins and DeFi apps—these incidents remain a talking point among regulators assessing systemic risk.
Investor Demand
Currently, institutional demand for Solana lags behind Bitcoin and Ethereum. BlackRock’s digital assets head, Robert Mitchnick, confirmed in March 2024 that client interest in altcoins is minimal. However, rumors suggest BlackRock may file for a Solana ETF in July—news that could dramatically shift sentiment if confirmed.
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When Could the Solana ETF Be Approved?
Based on filings submitted by Cboe on July 8, 2024, the SEC has up to 240 calendar days to make a final decision on VanEck’s and 21Shares’ applications. This sets a likely deadline around mid-March 2025, assuming the review clock starts promptly.
However, delays in acknowledging the filings could push that date further. Some experts, like Sygnum Bank’s Katalin Tischhauser, believe approval may not come until 2026, especially if initial applications are rejected.
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas echoed this timeline but emphasized that political change could fast-track decisions. In short: March 2025 is possible—but not guaranteed.
Will the SEC Approve a Solana ETF?
Approval hinges on three critical factors:
- Political leadership: A pro-crypto White House could pressure the SEC to act favorably.
- Market stability: A calm, resilient crypto market increases chances of approval.
- Legal clarity: Clearer guidance on whether SOL is a commodity or security will be decisive.
While odds remain low due to the security classification and lack of futures contracts, growing institutional interest and global adoption of Solana-based applications may sway regulators over time.
How Would ETF Approval Impact SOL Price?
Analysts project significant upside if a spot Solana ETF launches.
According to research by GSR Markets, SOL could see:
- A 9x price surge (to ~$1,320) if the ETF captures 14% of Bitcoin ETF inflows.
- A 3.4x increase (to ~$500) in a baseline scenario with 5% inflow capture.
- A modest 1.4x rise (to ~$210) in bearish conditions with only 2% adoption.
These projections assume strong investor appetite and effective marketing by issuers.
It's worth noting that Ethereum’s ETF launch did not trigger immediate price gains—ETH dropped 6% on day one despite strong inflows. Short-term volatility is expected; however, long-term trends suggest sustained growth driven by institutional adoption.
Can Solana Reach $1,000 After ETF Approval?
Yes—reaching $1,000 per SOL is within reach post-ETF approval, especially given:
- Increased accessibility for retail and institutional investors.
- Enhanced legitimacy through regulated investment vehicles.
- Growing use cases on the Solana network (DeFi, NFTs, payments).
- Limited supply dynamics compared to larger-cap cryptos.
With Bitcoin hitting new highs shortly after its ETF debut, history may repeat with Solana. As one of only three major cryptocurrencies potentially backed by a U.S. spot ETF (after BTC and ETH), Solana would gain exclusive status, driving demand and valuation higher.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
What is the expected Solana ETF approval date?
The most likely window for a decision is mid-March 2025, based on the 240-day review period following Cboe’s July 8 filing. However, delays are possible depending on regulatory priorities and political developments.
Is there currently a tradable Solana ETF?
No. As of now, there is no approved spot Solana ETF available for trading in the U.S. or most global markets. However, several firms—including VanEck, 21Shares, and Canada’s 3iQ—are actively pursuing approvals.
Are there any existing Solana-based investment products?
Yes. 21Shares offers a Solana Staking ETP in Europe that includes staking rewards and has over $800 million in assets under management. This shows strong existing demand outside the U.S.
What are the main obstacles to approval?
Key challenges include:
- SEC’s classification of SOL as a security.
- Absence of a regulated U.S. futures market.
- Ongoing political uncertainty.
- Past network reliability concerns.
Could BlackRock enter the Solana ETF race?
While unconfirmed, rumors suggest BlackRock may file for a Solana ETF in July 2024. Given its influence and successful track record with Bitcoin ETFs, such a move would significantly boost approval odds.
How might the market react post-approval?
Initial price action could be volatile—similar to Ethereum’s post-ETF launch dip. But long-term fundamentals support strong growth due to increased liquidity, broader adoption, and improved market confidence.
👉 Monitor real-time price movements and prepare for potential breakout trends.
Final Thoughts
While a Solana ETF in 2024 appears unlikely, all signs point toward active preparation for a potential approval in early 2025. With filings underway, growing institutional backing, and shifting political tides, the dream of a regulated SOL ETF is closer than ever before.
For investors, staying informed and prepared is crucial. Whether you're watching price charts or tracking regulatory updates, now is the time to understand how this development could reshape the crypto landscape.
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