Ethereum (ETH) has shown signs of resilience, rebounding from the critical $1,800 support level despite mounting selling pressure from short-term holders. Market sentiment has been influenced by macroeconomic uncertainty, particularly following former President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs—sparking risk-averse behavior among recent investors. While this triggered a wave of sell-offs, key on-chain metrics suggest underlying strength in long-term conviction, with staking inflows and exchange outflows pointing to sustained bullish momentum.
Short-Term Holders Trigger $400 Million in Realized Losses
Short-term holders (STHs)—defined as those who last moved their ETH within the past 3–6 months—have increasingly offloaded their positions amid market volatility. Data from Santiment reveals a surge in dormant supply turnover, indicating heightened distribution activity throughout March and into early April.
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This trend intensified recently, with STHs realizing nearly $400 million in net losses over a 24-hour window, according to on-chain profit/loss metrics. Many of these investors likely entered positions during price rallies earlier in the year and are now exiting at a loss due to the downturn.
Historically, such capitulation events often precede market bottoms. When short-term speculative pressure is flushed out, the path clears for more sustainable price recovery—especially if long-term holders remain confident.
However, a key concern arises if larger investors begin distributing as well. While some mid-tier whales show signs of profit-taking, others are accumulating aggressively—highlighting a growing divergence in investor sentiment.
Whale Activity Shows Diverging Market Sentiment
On-chain supply distribution data reveals a split among Ethereum’s larger holders:
- Investors holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH reduced their collective balance by 160,000 ETH over the past two weeks. This group had been steadily accumulating since January but appears to be exiting amid prolonged price weakness.
- In contrast, whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 ETH added 290,000 ETH to their holdings over the weekend—a strong signal of confidence from deep-pocketed players.
This divergence suggests that while some larger investors are cautious, the most committed market participants see current levels as an opportunity to accumulate. Such behavior often underpins future price rallies, as supply becomes increasingly concentrated in resilient hands.
Exchange Reserves Drop as Staking Inflows Accelerate
A crucial indicator of long-term bullishness is the movement of ETH away from centralized exchanges and into staking protocols. Over the past month, 940,000 ETH have been withdrawn from exchanges—a clear sign that investors are opting to lock up their assets rather than keep them readily available for sale.
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This trend aligns with a 530,000 ETH increase in total staked supply over the last three weeks, according to CryptoQuant. Even as prices decline, this sustained inflow into staking contracts reflects strong conviction in Ethereum’s long-term fundamentals.
Staking not only reduces circulating supply but also signals alignment with network security and decentralization—key pillars of Ethereum’s post-merge value proposition.
Ethereum Price Outlook: $1,800 Support Holds—for Now
After dropping over 10% from Friday to Sunday, ETH stabilized near $1,800 and posted a modest recovery. This level has become a psychological and technical battleground for bulls and bears alike.
According to Coinglass, $63.18 million** in futures positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours—comprising **$37.33 million in longs and $25.85 million in shorts. The high volume of long liquidations reflects leveraged traders being caught off guard by the sudden drop.
Technical Indicators: Caution Amid Potential Reversal
- Support Level: $1,800 remains critical. A sustained break below could open the door to a retest of **$1,500**.
- Resistance Level: The immediate ceiling sits at $2,070, where price was recently rejected. A close above this level—alongside a break of the descending trendline from December 16—would confirm a resumption of the bullish structure.
- Moving Averages: The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is converging near $2,070, adding confluence to this resistance zone.
- RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently below neutral (50), indicating bearish momentum.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is approaching its signal line, with the histogram nearing a negative crossover—potentially signaling further downside if confirmed.
While short-term indicators lean bearish, the broader on-chain narrative remains constructive. The combination of exchange outflows, rising staking participation, and whale accumulation paints a picture of underlying strength beneath surface-level volatility.
Key Ethereum Price Prediction Scenarios
| Scenario | Trigger | Potential Target |
|---|---|---|
| Bullish Breakout | Close above $2,070 + trendline break | $2,300–$2,500 |
| Bearish Continuation | Sustained drop below $1,800 | $1,500–$1,600 |
| Sideways Consolidation | Price holds between $1,800–$2,070 | Range-bound for 2–4 weeks |
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why are short-term holders selling Ethereum at a loss?
A: Short-term holders often react emotionally to market news and volatility. The uncertainty around global trade policies and risk-off macro trends have triggered fear-based selling, leading many to exit positions even at a loss.
Q: Does staking activity indicate long-term confidence in ETH?
A: Yes. When investors stake their ETH, they commit to locking it up for extended periods—often with reduced liquidity. Rising staking inflows suggest strong belief in Ethereum’s future value and network growth.
Q: What happens if Ethereum breaks below $1,800?
A: A confirmed breakdown below $1,800 could accelerate selling pressure and target the next major support zone around $1,500. Traders should watch for volume and on-chain signals to confirm whether this becomes a panic sell-off or a controlled correction.
Q: Are large investors still buying Ethereum?
A: Data shows a split: mid-sized whales (1K–10K ETH) are reducing exposure, but larger entities (10K–100K ETH) are actively accumulating. This divergence highlights selective confidence among top-tier investors.
Q: How reliable are on-chain metrics for predicting price movements?
A: On-chain data provides valuable insights into investor behavior and supply dynamics. While not foolproof, metrics like exchange reserves, staking flows, and realized profit/loss offer high-signal context when combined with technical analysis.
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Conclusion
Despite short-term turbulence and a wave of realized losses from recent buyers, Ethereum’s fundamentals remain robust. The ongoing decline in exchange reserves and surge in staking activity reflect enduring confidence among long-term investors.
While technical indicators suggest caution—and a break below $1,800 could lead to further downside—the broader on-chain narrative supports a potential rebound once selling pressure subsides. Investors should monitor key resistance at $2,070 and watch whale behavior closely for early signs of renewed accumulation.
Ethereum’s path forward will likely hinge on macro sentiment and network-level adoption—but for now, the data suggests that beneath the noise, strength is quietly building.
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