Bitcoin is teetering on the edge of a major price movement—and the signals are hard to ignore. After rebounding nearly 10% from recent lows to reach $108,200 on June 25, BTC is once again testing its all-time high near $112,000. Market structure, technical patterns, and on-chain behavior are aligning in a way that suggests something significant could be brewing. At the center of it all? A classic bull pennant formation that, if confirmed, could propel Bitcoin toward a bold $165,000 price target.
Welcome to the volatile, data-driven world of crypto—where technical precision meets investor psychology, and scarcity fuels momentum.
The Bull Pennant: A Pattern with Potential
Let’s break down the technical setup. Bitcoin surged approximately 42% between early April and late May, peaking at $112,000 before entering a consolidation phase. Chart analysts recognize this as a bull pennant—a continuation pattern that typically follows a sharp upward move. During this phase, price action narrows into a symmetrical triangle, reflecting temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers.
Think of it as a coiled spring. The energy from the initial rally is being contained, and once pressure builds sufficiently, a breakout in the direction of the prior trend becomes likely.
👉 Discover how market patterns shape Bitcoin’s next big move—insights you won’t want to miss.
According to technical analysis principles, the projected price target of a bull pennant is derived by measuring the height of the initial impulse wave and adding it to the breakout point. In this case, that math points to a staggering $165,000, representing a 54% increase from current levels.
Bitcoin has recently reclaimed its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a key technical milestone often associated with renewed bullish momentum. Analyst Jelle, a respected voice in the crypto community, noted on social media: “BTC reclaimed key support and is back inside the pennant. Break above $110K, and this flies a lot higher.”
While encouraging, it’s important to remain grounded. Historical data shows bull pennants succeed only about 54% of the time—barely better than a coin toss. They work best in strong trending markets, which Bitcoin may currently be entering. Still, traders should pair technical signals with risk management. As Michael Saylor’s long-term Bitcoin accumulation strategy demonstrates, conviction matters—but so does timing and position sizing.
The Vanishing Supply: A Silent Catalyst
Beyond charts and candlesticks, a more fundamental force is at play: Bitcoin is disappearing from exchanges.
On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant reports that daily Bitcoin flows on centralized exchanges have dropped to a 10-year low, with only around 40,000 BTC moving in and out per day. To put that in perspective, this volume is lower than during the FTX collapse in 2022 and even the market panic of early 2020.
This isn’t a sign of disinterest—it’s a signal of conviction. Investors are withdrawing their Bitcoin from exchanges and storing them in self-custodied wallets, indicating a long-term bullish outlook. When coins leave exchanges, they effectively exit liquid supply. Less supply available for immediate sale means that when demand increases—even modestly—price reactions can be swift and exaggerated.
This phenomenon, often called a “supply shock,” has preceded major rallies in past cycles. With over 1 million BTC estimated to be held long-term by institutions and retail “HODLers,” the market is tightening.
Binance Inflows Plummet: A Sign of Strength
The trend is especially pronounced on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange. Recent data shows Bitcoin inflows have collapsed to just 5,147 BTC—less than half the average seen even during bear markets. For context, in December 2024, when prices were significantly lower, inflows exceeded 13,000 BTC.
When investors refuse to sell—even as prices surpass $100,000—it reflects strong confidence in future appreciation. CryptoQuant’s 30-day moving average of inflows is in steep decline, while the outflow-to-inflow ratio remains elevated—mirroring conditions seen at the beginning of the 2021 bull run.
👉 See how investor behavior shapes market cycles before the next breakout happens.
This gradual liquidity squeeze creates fertile ground for explosive moves. Should institutional or retail demand spike—perhaps triggered by ETF inflows or macroeconomic shifts—the lack of readily available supply could send prices soaring with minimal resistance.
Macro and Market Fundamentals Add Fuel
It’s not just technicals and on-chain data driving this narrative. Broader macroeconomic forces are also aligning favorably:
- Expanding U.S. fiscal deficits and rising national debt are increasing skepticism about fiat stability.
- Anticipated tax reforms and potential Fed rate cuts in 2025 could boost risk appetite.
- The Bitcoin ETF ecosystem continues to mature, with growing AUM and mainstream adoption.
- Regulatory clarity in key markets is reducing uncertainty for institutional players.
Together, these factors create a supportive backdrop for Bitcoin as a hedge against monetary debasement and financial volatility.
Coinbase Soars Amid Renewed Crypto Optimism
Bitcoin isn’t the only asset rallying. Coinbase (COIN) stock has surged 133% from its April lows, recently hitting $352—a level just shy of its all-time high from the 2021 cycle. This rally reflects not only rising crypto prices but also strong business fundamentals.
In Q1 2025, Coinbase reported $2.03 billion in revenue, a 24% year-over-year increase. Notably, subscription and services revenue—driven largely by stablecoin activity—jumped over 36%. The company’s close partnership with Circle, issuer of USDC, positions it at the heart of the growing stablecoin economy.
With Circle now a top holding in VanEck’s global crypto equity index, it’s clear that traditional finance is increasingly integrating digital assets into core portfolios.
👉 Explore how crypto infrastructure growth is paving the way for the next bull market.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is a bull pennant in Bitcoin trading?
A bull pennant is a technical chart pattern that forms after a sharp price increase, followed by a period of consolidation. It typically signals a continuation of the prior uptrend, with the breakout target calculated from the initial move’s height.
Is $165K a realistic Bitcoin price target?
While ambitious, $165K is technically plausible if current momentum and supply constraints persist. Historical precedents show Bitcoin can achieve rapid gains during periods of low liquidity and high demand.
Why are fewer Bitcoins on exchanges bullish for price?
When Bitcoin leaves exchanges, it reduces available supply for immediate sale. This scarcity can amplify upward price pressure when demand increases, often leading to sharp rallies.
What role do ETFs play in Bitcoin’s price movement?
Spot Bitcoin ETFs increase institutional access to BTC without requiring direct custody. Sustained ETF inflows signal strong demand and can drive prices higher by absorbing available supply.
How does macroeconomic policy affect Bitcoin?
Bitcoin often performs well during periods of loose monetary policy, high inflation, or fiscal expansion. These conditions erode fiat purchasing power and increase demand for scarce digital assets.
Should I invest based on technical patterns like bull pennants?
Technical patterns offer insight but aren’t guarantees. Always combine them with fundamental analysis, risk management, and an understanding of market context before making investment decisions.
Final Thoughts: Opportunity Meets Caution
The confluence of technical structure, dwindling exchange supply, institutional adoption, and favorable macro trends paints an optimistic picture for Bitcoin’s next leg up. The path to $165,000 is not guaranteed—but it’s no longer implausible.
That said, crypto remains inherently volatile. Black swan events—regulatory crackdowns, security breaches, or macro shocks—can reverse sentiment overnight. As history shows, Bitcoin rewards patience and punishes over-leverage.
So while the bull pennant breakout may be incoming, approach it with eyes open, positions sized wisely, and a long-term mindset. Because in Bitcoin’s world, the stubborn survive—and thrive.
Keywords: Bitcoin price prediction, bull pennant, $165K Bitcoin, Bitcoin supply shortage, BTC technical analysis, Bitcoin ETF, Coinbase stock surge