The Bitcoin bull run that ignited in early 2023 may be entering its final phase, according to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant’s Korea Community Manager, Crypto Dan. As market indicators point toward a potential peak in the first half of 2025, investors are being urged to reassess their strategies and prepare for a possible shift in market momentum.
With Bitcoin currently trading at approximately $99,234, signs are emerging that the asset could be approaching a critical inflection point. While price appreciation remains strong, underlying on-chain metrics suggest that the cycle is maturing—raising questions about how much upside remains before a correction or bear market sets in.
Key On-Chain Metrics Signal Market Maturity
One of the most telling indicators comes from Bitcoin’s Realized Cap UTXO Age Bands, a metric that tracks how long Bitcoin has remained unspent across different portions of the supply. According to Crypto Dan, around 36% of Bitcoin’s market cap consists of coins that have moved within the past 30 days.
While this percentage is lower than previous cycle peaks—where turnover often exceeded 40%—it still signals widespread realization of profits and increased market activity. Historically, such levels have preceded major market tops.
“The long-term trend remains downward, which suggests that the market is likely to reach its cycle peak by Q1 2025, or at the latest by Q2 2025.”
— Crypto Dan, CryptoQuant
This data implies that a significant portion of holders have already taken profits or are actively trading, reducing the pool of dormant supply that typically fuels sustained rallies. When older coins stop moving and newer transactions dominate, it often reflects a speculative frenzy nearing exhaustion.
👉 Discover how market cycles influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory and what to watch next.
Bullish Momentum vs. Weak Trend Strength
On the technical side, Bitcoin is currently holding above key support levels. The 1-day chart shows BTC trading above the middle band of the Keltner Channel at $97,026. This level acts as immediate support; a drop below it could expose the lower band near $90,956.
Conversely, resistance looms at the upper Keltner band, currently at $103,096. A decisive breakout above this level could pave the way for a retest of Bitcoin’s December 2024 all-time high of over $108,000—and potentially open a new price discovery phase.
However, momentum indicators paint a mixed picture. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows the +DI rising slightly to 22.14, while the -DI falls to 21.24, indicating short-term bullish pressure. Yet, the Average Directional Index (ADX) stands at just 18.69, well below the 25 threshold that signifies a strong trend.
This suggests that while buyers are in control, the rally lacks conviction. For a true breakout to occur, sustained volume and stronger directional movement will be required.
Liquidity and External Factors at Play
Beyond on-chain and technical signals, broader macroeconomic forces could influence Bitcoin’s path in early 2025. Markus Thielen of 10x Research highlights the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting as a potential catalyst for volatility.
Fed policy decisions—particularly around interest rates and quantitative tightening—have historically impacted risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. If the central bank adopts a hawkish stance, it could dampen investor appetite for high-risk investments like Bitcoin.
Additionally, analysts note declining market liquidity for BTC. Without a significant increase in trading volume, surpassing resistance levels like $105,000 may prove difficult. Volume confirmation is essential for validating any upward move and avoiding false breakouts.
Mixed Outlook: Correction Ahead or Further Upside?
Not all outlooks are bearish. John Glover, Chief Investment Officer at Ledn, predicts a short-term correction down to $89,000, followed by a rebound toward $125,000 later in the quarter. This scenario aligns with historical patterns where pullbacks during late-stage bull markets often precede final surges.
Such corrections can serve as healthy consolidations, allowing new capital to enter before the next leg up. However, timing remains uncertain—and mistaking a correction for a new bull leg can carry significant risk.
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What Should Investors Do Now?
Crypto Dan advises caution, especially for those holding large positions. Given the signs of market maturity, he has begun gradually liquidating portions of his holdings to lock in gains and reduce exposure.
His strategy reflects a risk-aware approach: capitalize on remaining upside while preparing for increased volatility or a potential downturn. Dollar-cost averaging out of positions or setting trailing stop-losses are other prudent tactics investors might consider.
It’s also wise to monitor key metrics closely:
- UTXO age distribution
- Exchange inflows/outflows
- Trading volume trends
- Macro news flow
These signals can help distinguish between normal volatility and structural shifts in market sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: When is Bitcoin expected to reach its peak in this cycle?
A: Based on current indicators, many analysts project Bitcoin could hit its cycle top between Q1 and Q2 2025.
Q: What does UTXO age data tell us about market health?
A: Rising transaction activity among younger coins often signals profit-taking and speculative behavior—common in late bull phases.
Q: Can Bitcoin break past $105,000 without higher volume?
A: Unlikely. Sustained price increases above key resistance levels require strong volume confirmation to avoid false breakouts.
Q: How might Federal Reserve decisions affect Bitcoin?
A: Hawkish policies (like rate hikes) tend to reduce liquidity in financial markets, which can negatively impact risk assets including crypto.
Q: Is a drop to $89,000 a sign of a bear market?
A: Not necessarily. Short-term corrections during bull runs are common. A bear market is confirmed only after prolonged downward trends and loss of structural support.
Q: Should I sell all my Bitcoin now?
A: Timing the top is extremely difficult. A better approach may be gradual profit-taking and risk management rather than all-in or all-out moves.
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Final Thoughts
While the Bitcoin bull run isn’t officially over, evidence suggests it’s entering its twilight phase. On-chain metrics, technical structures, and macro risks all point toward heightened caution in early 2025.
Investors should focus not just on price, but on context—understanding why the market is moving and what precedents history offers. Whether we’re facing a final parabolic surge or an impending correction, preparation is key.
By staying informed, managing risk, and using reliable analytics, traders can navigate this critical juncture with greater confidence—even as the bull cycle shows signs of winding down.
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