Bitcoin (BTC) is at a pivotal moment as bearish signals intensify following a disappointing end to March. After a brief rally in mid-March, the market has once again turned downward, raising concerns about further downside pressure in April and beyond. With technical indicators flashing red and key resistance levels holding firm, traders and investors are questioning whether Bitcoin can reclaim momentum—or if a drop toward $70,000 is now inevitable.
This article dives into the latest price action, chart patterns, and technical indicators shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory. We’ll explore the implications of recent candlestick formations, trend line rejections, and Elliott Wave analysis to assess what lies ahead for the leading cryptocurrency in 2025.
The Bearish Weekly Candlestick Confirms Downtrend
A critical development emerged on the weekly chart: Bitcoin formed a bearish engulfing candlestick during the final week of March. This pattern, widely recognized in technical analysis, occurs when a large red (down) candle completely "engulfs" the body of the previous green (up) candle—signaling strong selling pressure and a potential reversal.
The bullish rally that began on March 11, after a sharp decline from the all-time high of $109,588, appeared promising at first. Prices rebounded from $76,600, fueling hopes of a sustained recovery. However, the rally failed to break above a long-term descending resistance trend line, and the subsequent weekly close confirmed a resumption of the bearish trend.
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This means the mid-March bounce was likely just a relief rally—a temporary pause in a broader downtrend rather than the start of a new bull phase. With the weekly structure now invalidated, downside risks have increased significantly.
Key Technical Indicators Signal Continued Weakness
Supporting this bearish outlook are major technical indicators showing weakening momentum:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 50, indicating that selling pressure now dominates over buying interest.
- The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has generated a bearish crossover—where the MACD line crosses below the signal line—further confirming downward momentum.
If the current trend continues, the next major support zone lies around $69,000, aligned with both historical demand levels and Fibonacci extension targets.
Breakdown Confirmed on Daily Timeframe
Zooming into the daily chart reveals additional confirmation of the breakdown. Bitcoin’s price action since March 13 formed an ascending parallel channel—a classic sign of corrective movement rather than a strong bullish reversal.
On March 28, price action was rejected at a key descending resistance trend line, triggering a fresh wave of selling. Multiple bearish daily candles followed, erasing gains from the earlier rally.
Currently, BTC trades near the $81,160 support level**. A decisive close below this level could accelerate losses and open the door to retesting the year’s low at **$76,600, with potential extension toward $69,000.
Technical indicators on the daily chart mirror those on the weekly:
- RSI remains below 50
- MACD shows negative momentum and a confirmed bearish cross
These confluences across timeframes suggest a high probability of continued downside movement in the near term.
Elliott Wave Analysis: Is a Five-Wave Decline Underway?
One of the most compelling analytical frameworks currently pointing to further losses is Elliott Wave Theory. According to this model, Bitcoin may have completed a five-wave bullish cycle that began in December 2022—a typical structure marking the end of an impulse move.
Since reaching its peak in January 2025, BTC appears to be entering a new five-wave corrective decline (labeled in orange). So far, waves one and two of this downward sequence appear complete, suggesting that waves three, four, and five are still unfolding.
Wave three is often the strongest and longest leg in an Elliott sequence. If this pattern holds, we could see accelerated selling pressure in April and May, potentially driving prices into key Fibonacci retracement zones between $51,378 and $62,437—levels derived from the 0.5 to 0.618 retracements of the prior uptrend.
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While long-term projections point lower, short-term charts show signs of exhaustion. A double-bottom formation on the 2-hour timeframe and emerging bullish divergences in RSI and MACD suggest a short-lived relief rally could occur.
Such a bounce might push prices toward $84,200–$85,100, where strong resistance is expected. However, unless BTC breaks above the descending trend line with volume, any rally should be viewed as an opportunity to short or exit long positions—not as a sign of trend reversal.
What Lies Ahead in 2025?
Despite temporary rallies, all macro-level signals point to a bearish outlook for Bitcoin throughout 2025. The combination of failed breakouts, persistent distribution patterns, and weakening on-chain metrics supports this view.
Key factors reinforcing bearish sentiment include:
- Failure to sustain momentum after corrections
- Rejection at structural resistance levels
- Bearish divergence in momentum indicators
- Completion of major bullish wave structures
While volatility will persist—and sharp rallies are expected within downtrends—the overall path appears downward. Traders should prepare for extended consolidation or further declines toward mid-year.
A break above $85,100 with strong volume would challenge this bearish thesis. Until then, caution remains warranted.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is Bitcoin’s weekly bearish engulfing candle significant?
A: It signals strong seller control after a short-lived rally. Historically, such patterns often precede extended downtrends, especially when combined with failed breakout attempts.
Q: What is the next major support level for Bitcoin?
A: The nearest support is around $69,000. Beyond that, longer-term support exists between $51,378 and $62,437 based on Fibonacci retracement levels.
Q: Can Bitcoin recover and enter a new bull run in 2025?
A: While possible, current technical structure suggests otherwise. A confirmed break above $85,100 and reclamation of the descending trend line would be needed to shift bias toward bullish.
Q: What does Elliott Wave Theory suggest about Bitcoin’s future?
A: It indicates that Bitcoin may have finished its five-wave bull cycle and is now in a corrective five-wave downtrend. Waves three through five could drive prices significantly lower.
Q: Should I buy Bitcoin during this dip?
A: All investments carry risk. While dips can present opportunities, doing so during a confirmed downtrend requires careful risk management. Always conduct independent research and consider consulting a financial advisor.
Q: How reliable are technical indicators like RSI and MACD?
A: These tools are widely used and effective when combined with price action and volume analysis. However, they work best as part of a broader strategy rather than standalone signals.
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