The digital asset market is heating up once again. Over the weekend, cryptocurrencies saw a broad-based rally, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $60,000 mark for the first time since July 4. Ethereum, Tether, Dogecoin, and other major coins followed suit in a strong upward move. This resurgence comes amid shifting political winds, evolving macroeconomic signals, and growing institutional interest—factors that are reshaping investor sentiment in 2025.
Notably, early trading in Saudi Arabia also showed strength, reinforcing global risk-on behavior. But what’s behind this sudden market momentum?
👉 Discover how political shifts and macro trends are fueling crypto’s next surge.
Political Winds Shift in Favor of Crypto
A major driver behind the renewed optimism is the evolving U.S. political landscape. Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly voiced support for cryptocurrencies, signaling a potential policy shift should he return to power. On Truth Social last month, Trump emphasized Bitcoin’s geopolitical significance, warning that stifling its growth would only benefit America’s global competitors.
Even more telling is the Republican Party’s latest platform draft, which explicitly calls for an end to "crackdowns on cryptocurrency." The document advocates against central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), defends the right to mine Bitcoin, and supports the freedom to custody and trade digital assets—positions that resonate strongly with the crypto community.
This pro-crypto stance may also be tied to campaign financing dynamics. Analysts note that the crypto industry has emerged as a significant source of political funding. Reports suggest that mining executives have pledged up to $100 million for Trump’s campaign and aim to mobilize 5 million pro-crypto voters.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Foreign Exchange and Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, believes Trump’s regulatory approach would be far more favorable than the Biden administration’s. With rising odds of a Trump victory in November 2025, Kendrick projects Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by election day—and potentially climb to $200,000 by late 2026.
Four Key Catalysts Behind the Rally
Despite a rough patch earlier in July—when Bitcoin dropped from nearly $70,000 to below $60,000—several structural factors now point to a potential turning point.
1. Miner Capitulation Signals Market Bottom
Historically, when miners face intense pressure and begin shutting down operations, it often precedes a market bottom. Recent data shows Bitcoin’s real hash rate has declined by 7.6%, a level comparable to the FTX collapse when BTC traded around $16,000.
This kind of capitulation typically forces weaker players out of the market, reducing selling pressure. As these miners go offline, supply-side stress eases—paving the way for a recovery. The current sell-off may have already flushed out the weakest hands.
2. End of German Government’s Bitcoin Dump
For weeks, the market absorbed a massive wave of Bitcoin sales from the German government, which began liquidating holdings in mid-June. The total value cleared approached $3.5 billion. Yet despite this sustained pressure, Bitcoin held firm around $58,000—a sign of underlying strength.
Michaël van de Poppe, a prominent crypto analyst, highlighted this resilience on X (formerly Twitter), noting that the market efficiently digested the sell-off. With most of the German BTC likely now offloaded, this major overhang has lifted, removing a key downward force.
3. Whale Accumulation Intensifies
Large investors—commonly known as “whales”—are back in buying mode. According to blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin whales purchased approximately 71,000 BTC over the past week, taking advantage of lower prices caused by the German sales.
This accumulation has pushed total whale holdings to an estimated $41.32 billion in value. While daily activity dipped slightly, weekly inflows remain robust. Such concentrated buying reduces available supply and often precedes sharp price increases.
4. Global ETF Inflows Accelerate
Institutional demand is surging through regulated channels. Hong Kong’s Bitcoin ETFs have increased their reserves by 28.6% since late June, reaching 4,941 BTC by July 13. In Australia, Monochrome’s Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) has rapidly accumulated nearly 100 BTC since launch.
But the most dramatic flows are coming from the U.S., where Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $1.1 billion in net inflows in just one week—the highest weekly total on record. This surge underscores growing institutional confidence and injects fresh capital into the ecosystem.
👉 See how ETF inflows are transforming crypto into a mainstream asset class.
Macro Outlook: Rate Cuts vs. Inflation Risks
Markets widely expect a Federal Reserve rate cut in September 2025, fueled by cooling inflation and concerns about prolonged high rates damaging growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently acknowledged progress on inflation and left the door open for easing—if data continues to improve.
However, not all financial leaders agree.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase and often dubbed the “King of Wall Street,” issued a stark warning on Friday. While acknowledging some disinflationary progress, he stressed that “multiple inflationary pressures remain” ahead:
- Massive fiscal deficits
- Critical infrastructure needs
- Global trade reconfiguration
- Rising military spending worldwide
Dimon noted that U.S. deficits reached $855 billion in the first nine months of fiscal 2025 and totaled $1.7 trillion in 2024. He cautioned that inflation and interest rates could remain higher than markets anticipate.
Back in April, Dimon warned that premature rate cuts could backfire and even trigger recession. Despite his hawkish stance, he has refrained from criticizing Trump—a rare alignment given his influence in financial circles. Earlier this year, he admitted Trump was “right on many issues.”
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why did Bitcoin suddenly rebound above $60,000?
A: A combination of factors—including reduced miner selling pressure, end of German government sales, strong whale accumulation, and record ETF inflows—created bullish momentum.
Q: How do U.S. politics affect cryptocurrency prices?
A: Pro-crypto policies under a potential Trump administration—such as protecting mining rights and opposing CBDCs—boost investor confidence and signal favorable future regulation.
Q: Are ETFs really driving Bitcoin's price?
A: Yes. U.S., Hong Kong, and Australian ETFs are attracting institutional capital at unprecedented levels. The $1.1 billion weekly inflow in July is a clear indicator of growing mainstream adoption.
Q: What does Jamie Dimon’s inflation warning mean for crypto?
A: Persistent inflation may keep real interest rates low or negative, making hard assets like Bitcoin more attractive as a hedge against currency devaluation.
Q: Is miner capitulation a reliable indicator?
A: Historically yes. Sharp drops in hash rate often coincide with market bottoms, as weaker miners exit and supply pressure eases before a rebound.
Q: Could Bitcoin reach $100,000 in 2025?
A: With strong ETF demand, favorable politics, and macro tailwinds, many analysts—including those at Standard Chartered—believe it's possible by year-end.
👉 Explore expert predictions on whether Bitcoin will hit six figures this year.
Final Thoughts
The confluence of political momentum, institutional adoption, technical indicators, and macroeconomic uncertainty paints a compelling picture for digital assets in 2025. While risks remain—especially around inflation and policy shifts—the current trajectory suggests growing resilience in the crypto market.
As whales accumulate, ETFs expand globally, and political support strengthens, Bitcoin appears poised for another leg higher—especially if macro conditions evolve as expected.
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