The cryptocurrency market has witnessed a powerful rally from Stellar (XLM) this week, as the digital asset recorded a 32% price increase, pushing its value above $0.45** and lifting its **market capitalization past $13 billion. This surge marks one of the most significant weekly performances for XLM in recent months, drawing renewed attention from traders and investors alike.
A Strong Rebound From Key Support
The upward momentum began after XLM found solid footing near the $0.31 support level early in the week. From that point, the price climbed steadily—gaining 27% over three days—before accelerating further on Friday with an additional 4% gain. This consistent rise suggests strong accumulation and growing confidence in the asset’s short-term trajectory.
The rally wasn’t just driven by speculative interest. On-chain data and technical indicators point to a broader shift in market sentiment, with increasing participation and structural bullish patterns forming across multiple timeframes.
👉 Discover how real-time market data can help you track explosive moves like XLM’s surge.
On-Chain Metrics Signal Growing Ecosystem Activity
Behind the price action, key on-chain metrics reveal a deepening level of engagement within the Stellar ecosystem.
One of the most telling signs is the surge in futures Open Interest (OI), which more than doubled from $126.86 million to $274.11 million within just two days, according to Coinglass. This spike—the highest OI since December 10, 2024—indicates that traders are opening new long positions, signaling strong conviction in continued upside.
Equally important is the growth in Total Value Locked (TVL) across Stellar-based decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. Data from DefiLlama shows TVL rising from $44.95 million to $54.59 million in just three days. This nearly 22% increase reflects growing adoption of Stellar’s DeFi infrastructure and suggests that users are not only buying XLM but actively deploying it within the network.
Technical Analysis: Bullish Patterns Take Shape
Technical indicators are painting a compelling picture of sustained bullish momentum for XLM.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 71.1, holding above the overbought threshold of 70 since January 1. While this suggests the asset may be due for a short-term pullback or consolidation, it also confirms intense buying pressure and strong market enthusiasm.
A key development on the daily chart is the bullish MACD crossover that occurred on Tuesday, where the MACD line crossed above the signal line. This pattern often precedes extended price rallies and is seen as a strong buy signal by technical traders.
Additionally, the Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows XLM trading well above the red cloud, with a green (bullish) cloud forming ahead—indicating strong future support and momentum. The conversion line (Tenkan-sen) has crossed above the baseline (Kijun-sen), reinforcing the bullish trend.
Perhaps most notably, XLM has formed a golden cross, where the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has crossed above the 200-day EMA. Historically, this pattern signals the start of a long-term uptrend and is closely watched by institutional investors.
Price Targets and Key Levels to Watch
Given the current technical setup, analysts suggest that if momentum holds, XLM could aim for its previous high of $0.63, set on November 24, 2024—representing a potential 40% upside from current levels.
Immediate resistance lies at $0.47**, followed by a psychological barrier at **$0.50. A decisive break above these levels could trigger further buying pressure from both retail and algorithmic traders.
On the downside, the nearest support level is at $0.41**. A drop below this point could lead to profit-taking and a test of the stronger support at **$0.31, which would mark a 27% correction from current prices.
A daily close below $0.31 would invalidate the current bullish structure and could prompt a retest of the **100-day EMA at $0.29**, though such a scenario appears less likely given the strength of recent buying volume.
Volume and Market Sentiment Confirm Healthy Rally
The price surge has been accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume across major exchanges, adding credibility to the move. Rising volume alongside rising prices typically indicates a healthy, sustainable trend—rather than a speculative pump.
Hourly charts show consistent higher lows, suggesting steady accumulation rather than panic buying. This pattern is often seen in strong trending markets where informed investors are gradually building positions.
While broader crypto market conditions have improved recently, XLM’s performance has notably outpaced many of its peers, highlighting growing interest in its unique value proposition—particularly its focus on cross-border payments and financial inclusion.
👉 Stay ahead of major price moves with advanced trading tools designed for volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What caused Stellar (XLM) to surge 32% this week?
A: The surge was driven by a combination of technical breakout patterns, increased futures Open Interest, rising Total Value Locked (TVL), and strong buying volume—indicating renewed market confidence and growing ecosystem activity.
Q: Is XLM overbought based on current indicators?
A: Yes, the RSI is at 71.1, above the 70 overbought threshold. While this suggests potential for short-term consolidation, it doesn’t necessarily mean a reversal is imminent—strong trends can remain overbought for extended periods.
Q: What is the golden cross and why does it matter for XLM?
A: A golden cross occurs when the 50-day EMA crosses above the 200-day EMA. It’s considered a long-term bullish signal and often precedes major uptrends, making it a key indicator for investors watching XLM’s momentum.
Q: Can XLM reach $0.63 again?
A: Technically, yes. With strong support holding and bullish patterns in place, $0.63—the November 2024 high—is a realistic target if current momentum continues and broader market conditions remain favorable.
Q: What happens if XLM drops below $0.41?
A: A break below $0.41 could trigger short-term selling pressure, with potential downside toward $0.31. However, as long as volume remains strong and TVL continues to grow, the long-term outlook may remain intact.
Q: How does Stellar’s ecosystem growth affect XLM’s price?
A: Rising TVL and increased protocol usage indicate real-world adoption. When users lock value or transact on the network, demand for XLM increases—creating fundamental support for price appreciation.
Final Thoughts
Stellar (XLM) is demonstrating strong technical and fundamental momentum as it breaks through key resistance levels and attracts renewed investor interest. With market cap exceeding $13 billion, rising DeFi activity, and a robust technical setup, XLM is positioning itself as one of the standout performers in early 2025.
While short-term corrections are possible—especially with RSI in overbought territory—the underlying metrics suggest this rally is more than just speculation. Growing on-chain activity and increasing trader engagement point to a maturing ecosystem with long-term potential.
👉 Access real-time analytics and advanced charting tools to monitor XLM’s next move.
As always, traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely and consider risk management strategies in volatile conditions. But for now, all eyes are on whether XLM can maintain its upward trajectory toward $0.63—and beyond.