The world of cryptocurrency moves in cycles—predictable, powerful, and often misunderstood. If you're trying to make sense of where Bitcoin stands today and whether we’re entering a bull market, you're not alone. This guide distills years of market behavior, on-chain signals, and historical patterns into a clear roadmap for both new and experienced investors.
"In times of uncertainty, the wisest investors bet big."
Grab a cup of coffee. This is everything I wish I had known when I bought my first Bitcoin in 2020—knowledge that could have saved me stress, money, and months of confusion.
What Defines a Bull Market?
A bull market is typically defined as a period when asset prices are rising or expected to rise. According to Investopedia, it reflects sustained optimism and increasing investor confidence. In traditional markets, a 20% gain over two months often signals a bull run. But Bitcoin doesn’t play by traditional rules.
Given its volatility and unique supply mechanics, we need a more nuanced approach to identify Bitcoin’s bull phases—one rooted in halvings, on-chain data, and historical cycle patterns.
Understanding Bitcoin Halvings
At the heart of Bitcoin’s market cycles lies the halving event, which occurs approximately every four years—or every 210,000 blocks mined.
👉 Discover how supply scarcity shapes long-term crypto trends
Each halving cuts the block reward in half, reducing the rate at which new Bitcoins enter circulation. This programmed scarcity is a core driver of long-term value appreciation. Historically, each halving has preceded a major bull run.
For beginners:
Halving reduces miner rewards, tightening supply growth. With demand steady or increasing, this imbalance often leads to significant price increases over time.
Let’s break down how past cycles have unfolded.
Historical Market Cycles: A Pattern Emerges
Since its inception, Bitcoin has followed a consistent cycle pattern—each culminating in a new all-time high (ATH). These peaks are closely tied to the timing of halvings.
Post-Halving Price Peaks
- Second Epoch (after 1st halving): ~12 months to reach ATH
- Third Epoch (after 2nd halving): ~18 months to ATH
- Fourth Epoch (after 3rd halving): First peak at 11 months, second at 18 months
This suggests that Bitcoin typically reaches new highs between 11 and 18 months after a halving—a window we should keep in mind for future predictions.
Cycle Lows and Timing
Even the market bottoms show remarkable consistency:
- 2nd Epoch: Low occurred ~18 months before next halving
- 3rd Epoch: Same timeline—~18 months prior
- 4th Epoch: Bottom formed ~17 months before next halving
👉 See how market cycles influence investor behavior
With the most recent halving expected in 2024, this historical trend strongly suggests that the cycle low may have already occurred in 2023, placing us potentially in the early stages of a new bull phase.
Technical Indicators: RSI and Market Sentiment
While fundamentals drive long-term value, technical indicators help time entries and exits.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has historically hit cycle lows when the RSI(14) dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions. This signal has been reliable across all previous bear markets.
Notably, during the March 2020 crash—when global markets tumbled due to pandemic fears—Bitcoin briefly dipped but quickly reversed without making a new low. That resilience was an early sign of strength, hinting that the next bull run had already begun.
On-Chain Analysis: Data from the Blockchain
One of Bitcoin’s greatest advantages is transparency. Every transaction is recorded on a public ledger, enabling powerful analytical tools known as on-chain metrics.
Here are three key indicators that reveal market health:
1. NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
NUPL measures the ratio between market capitalization and realized capitalization. It shows whether investors are in profit or loss across the network.
- When NUPL exceeds 50%, profit-taking becomes likely
- At 75% or higher, extreme overvaluation often precedes major corrections
Historically, each cycle forms a higher NUPL low—indicating growing long-term conviction and accumulation at higher price levels.
2. Rainbow Chart
Once popular, the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart plotted price movement within color-coded logarithmic bands. However, recent price action has broken historical patterns—Bitcoin exited the “blue” zone and hasn’t returned to the “red” (extreme undervaluation) area.
While visually compelling, this model may no longer reflect current market dynamics due to increased institutional adoption and macroeconomic shifts.
3. MVRV Z-Score
The MVRV Z-Score compares market value to realized value to assess overvaluation or undervaluation.
- Z-Score > 7: Overvalued territory — correction likely
- Z-Score < -1: Undervalued — potential accumulation zone
Past cycle tops were accurately signaled when the Z-Score entered the upper red band. The last major top was cleanly rejected at this level—validating its predictive power.
Are We in a Bull Market Now?
Based on historical patterns, technical signals, and on-chain data—the answer points toward yes.
Key signs include:
- RSI emerging from oversold levels
- NUPL forming a higher low
- MVRV Z-Score rising from deep undervaluation
- Strong post-halving momentum building
But there's one crucial difference this time: global macroeconomic conditions are far more complex.
We’re navigating high inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical instability, and declining trust in fiat systems. While these factors create risk for risk-on assets like Bitcoin, they also reinforce its narrative as digital gold—a hedge against monetary debasement.
Core Keywords Summary
To align with search intent and SEO best practices, here are the core keywords naturally integrated throughout:
- Bitcoin cycles
- Bull market indicators
- Bitcoin halving 2024
- On-chain analysis
- RSI Bitcoin
- NUPL indicator
- MVRV Z-score
- Market cycle timing
These terms reflect what investors are actively searching for—and are embedded contextually to enhance discoverability without keyword stuffing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How long after a halving does a bull market start?
A: Historically, bull runs begin within 6–12 months post-halving, with new all-time highs typically reached between 11 and 18 months after.
Q: Can we trust on-chain data to predict price movements?
A: On-chain metrics like NUPL and MVRV Z-Score provide strong probabilistic signals, especially at cycle extremes. They’re best used alongside other tools rather than in isolation.
Q: Was the 2023 market bottom confirmed?
A: Evidence suggests yes—RSI oversold signals, on-chain accumulation, and timing relative to the next halving all point to a completed bottom phase.
Q: Does Bitcoin always go up after a halving?
A: While not guaranteed, every halving so far has been followed by a significant bull run. Supply shock combined with growing adoption creates strong upward pressure.
Q: What should I do if I believe we're entering a bull market?
A: Focus on education first. Understand the technology behind Bitcoin. Accumulate strategically during consolidation phases and avoid emotional trading based on hype.
Final Thoughts: Invest in Understanding, Not Just Price
The most important lesson I’ve learned? Price is just sentiment. Value comes from utility.
Bitcoin isn’t just an investment—it’s a decentralized protocol solving real problems: financial inclusion, censorship resistance, instant global settlement, and monetary scarcity via innovations like the Lightning Network.
"Successful investors buy assets they understand."
Don’t chase pumps. Instead:
- Learn how protocols work
- Test wallets and tools yourself
- Engage with communities
- Ask questions
When panic hits and “blood is in the streets,” those who understand will buy—not sell.
👉 Start your journey into smart crypto investing today
Remember: This article is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.