Bitcoin recently surged past the $60,000 mark, reaching a high of $60,920—an encouraging rebound following a brief dip to $57,600 the previous evening. As of press time, BTC trades at $60,815, reflecting a solid 4.19% gain over the past 24 hours. The recovery appears stable, with no signs of a false breakout or rapid reversal.
This renewed momentum aligns with broader market optimism, particularly around potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. But beyond price action, on-chain data reveals a deeper story: long-term confidence among Bitcoin holders remains strong.
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Strong Institutional and Investor Sentiment Drives Momentum
The recent uptick in Bitcoin’s price coincides with positive movements across major U.S. stock indices:
- Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 236.77 points (+0.58%) to close at 40,896.53
- Nasdaq Composite gained 245.05 points (+1.39%) to 17,876.77
- S&P 500 increased by 54 points (+0.97%) to 5,608.25
- Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 96.32 points (+1.86%) to 5,266.57
This synchronized rally suggests growing risk appetite in financial markets, likely fueled by expectations of looser monetary policy. With inflation showing signs of cooling, investors are increasingly pricing in a September rate cut by the Fed—a shift that historically benefits high-growth and alternative assets like cryptocurrencies.
74% of Bitcoin Supply Hasn’t Moved in 6 Months
One of the most telling indicators of long-term confidence comes from Glassnode’s Hodl Wave data, which shows that approximately 74% of all circulating Bitcoin has not been moved in the past six months. This figure has remained remarkably consistent throughout 2024, even as prices pulled back 21% from their all-time highs.
Such prolonged dormancy signals that a vast majority of Bitcoin holders are adopting a HODL strategy, viewing BTC not as a short-term trade but as a long-term store of value—similar to digital gold.
This behavior has two critical implications:
- Reduced circulating supply: Fewer coins available for trading increase scarcity.
- Stronger price resilience: Long-term holders are less likely to panic-sell during volatility.
As demand rises—whether from retail investors, institutions, or nation-states—the shrinking liquid supply could amplify upward price pressure.
"When coins stop moving, it often means conviction is rising," notes on-chain analyst James Wo. "We’re seeing a maturation in Bitcoin’s investor base."
Ethereum Follows Similar Trajectory
Ether is mirroring Bitcoin’s recovery pattern. After dipping to $2,563, ETH rebounded sharply and reached a high of $2,677 at the time of writing—a sign that broader crypto market sentiment is improving.
While Ethereum’s narrative continues to evolve with developments in DeFi, Layer-2 scaling, and tokenization, its price correlation with BTC remains strong during macro-driven rallies.
Market Volatility and Liquidations
Despite the bullish tone, volatility remains part of the crypto landscape. Over the past 24 hours, approximately $100 million in leveraged positions were liquidated, affecting around 40,000 traders globally.
However, this level of liquidation is relatively modest given the price swing—suggesting that excessive leverage is not widespread and systemic risk remains low. In contrast to previous cycles where $500M+ liquidations triggered cascading sell-offs, today’s market appears more resilient.
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Key Upcoming Catalysts to Watch
While current momentum is positive, several macroeconomic events this week could influence the direction of both traditional and crypto markets.
FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wednesday)
The release of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes may offer clues about the Fed’s stance on interest rates. If the language leans dovish—acknowledging progress on inflation without signaling hawkish delays—markets may interpret it as confirmation that a September rate cut is likely.
Historically, rate cuts or even expectations thereof have boosted risk assets, including equities and Bitcoin.
Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech (Friday)
All eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, scheduled for Friday evening (Taipei time).
This annual gathering brings together central bankers, economists, and policymakers from around the world and often sets the tone for global monetary policy in the coming months.
Given the current economic uncertainty—slowing growth, sticky inflation, and geopolitical risks—Powell’s comments could significantly impact market sentiment. A clear nod toward easing would likely fuel further gains in Bitcoin and other risk-on assets.
"Jackson Hole isn’t just a speech—it’s a policy signal," said market strategist Lisa Chen. "Even subtle word changes can move markets."
On-Chain Indicators Flash Bullish Signals
Beyond holder behavior, other metrics suggest Bitcoin may be forming a solid base for future growth.
CryptoQuant recently highlighted a golden cross in Bitcoin’s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio, marking the third time this year the indicator has signaled a potential bottom. The NVT ratio is often described as the "P/E ratio of crypto"—a high value suggests overvaluation, while a low or declining value can indicate undervaluation.
When combined with low exchange reserves and rising stablecoin balances on exchanges—a sign of incoming buying pressure—the data paints a cautiously optimistic picture.
Why Long-Term Holding Matters
The fact that three-quarters of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in half a year underscores a key shift in market dynamics:
- Early adopters and institutional investors are holding firm.
- Retail FOMO (fear of missing out) has not yet reignited at scale.
- The asset is increasingly treated as a strategic reserve rather than a speculative play.
This structural change reduces sell-side pressure and makes large-scale dumps less likely—unless macro conditions deteriorate sharply.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does it mean when 74% of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in six months?
A: It means most coins are being held long-term, typically by investors who believe in future price appreciation. This reduces available supply and can drive prices higher when demand increases.
Q: Is Bitcoin safe if the Fed doesn’t cut rates in September?
A: While a delay might cause short-term disappointment, Bitcoin has shown resilience even in mixed macro environments. Its adoption as a hedge against long-term monetary expansion remains intact.
Q: How do stock market movements affect Bitcoin?
A: In the short term, Bitcoin often correlates with risk-on assets like tech stocks. When equities rise due to rate cut hopes or strong earnings, crypto tends to follow.
Q: Could another market crash trigger mass sell-offs?
A: While possible, current on-chain data suggests stronger holder conviction than in past cycles. Many investors now view BTC as a long-term wealth preservation tool.
Q: What should I watch this week for crypto price clues?
A: Focus on the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech (Friday). Any dovish signals could boost both stocks and crypto.
Q: Is $100K still possible for Bitcoin this cycle?
A: Many analysts maintain that $100K remains achievable, especially if macro conditions improve and institutional adoption accelerates post-halving.
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Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s approach to $61,000 amid strong holding patterns and favorable macro tailwinds reflects growing maturity in the digital asset ecosystem. With 74% of supply dormant and key economic catalysts on the horizon, the stage may be set for another leg up.
While short-term volatility is inevitable, the long-term trend continues to favor patient investors who understand that scarcity, adoption, and sentiment are aligning once again.
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