The prospect of a spot Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) receiving regulatory approval in the United States has significantly increased, with Bloomberg Intelligence now estimating a 90% chance of approval by 2025. This marks a notable rise from the 70% probability assessed earlier in the year, reflecting growing confidence in the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) potential shift in stance toward crypto-based financial products.
This updated forecast comes from Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, who shared the revised odds on April 30, 2025. The analysis not only boosts Solana’s outlook but also elevates approval probabilities for several other major altcoins, including XRP, Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), Litecoin (LTC), Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (HBAR), and Avalanche (AVAX).
Rising Approval Chances Across Major Altcoins
Bloomberg’s latest assessment indicates a broadening regulatory openness to spot cryptocurrency ETFs beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum. Here are the updated approval probabilities:
- Solana (SOL): 90%
- Litecoin (LTC): 90% (unchanged since February)
- XRP: 85% (up from 65%)
- Dogecoin (DOGE): 80% (up from 75%)
- Cardano (ADA): 75%
- Polkadot (DOT), Hedera (HBAR), Avalanche (AVAX): All above 70%
👉 Discover how ETF developments could unlock new investment opportunities in the crypto market.
The rising odds suggest that the SEC may increasingly classify these digital assets as commodities rather than securities—a critical distinction that could pave the way for regulatory approval. If deemed commodities, these tokens would fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) instead of the SEC, reducing legal hurdles for ETF issuers.
Multiple Asset Managers Pursue Spot Crypto ETFs
The momentum behind altcoin ETFs is backed by strong institutional interest. As of April 30, six major asset management firms have formally filed applications to launch spot Solana ETFs:
- Grayscale
- VanEck
- 21Shares
- Canary
- Bitwise
- Franklin
This wave of filings mirrors the earlier push for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, signaling that traditional finance is steadily embracing decentralized networks with strong fundamentals and real-world usage.
Similarly, multiple firms are advancing efforts for other altcoin-based ETFs:
- Litecoin: Filings submitted by Canary, Grayscale, and CoinShares
- XRP: Six asset managers, including Grayscale and Bitwise, have filed for XRP ETFs
- Dogecoin: Grayscale, Bitwise, and 21Shares are actively pursuing DOGE ETFs
These coordinated moves highlight a strategic effort to diversify crypto investment vehicles and meet growing retail and institutional demand for regulated exposure to digital assets.
Why Solana Stands Out
Solana has emerged as a top contender for ETF approval due to its high-performance blockchain infrastructure, growing ecosystem of decentralized applications (dApps), and increasing adoption in areas like decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). Its scalability and low transaction costs have attracted developers and users alike, positioning it as a credible alternative to Ethereum.
Moreover, Solana’s consistent network performance and transparent tokenomics strengthen its case for being classified as a commodity—a key criterion for ETF eligibility under current SEC interpretations.
XRP and the Ripple Effect
XRP’s jump from 65% to 85% approval odds is particularly significant. Historically, XRP faced regulatory uncertainty due to the ongoing legal battle between Ripple Labs and the SEC. However, recent court rulings have favored Ripple, suggesting that XRP may not qualify as a security when sold to the general public.
This legal clarity has likely influenced Bloomberg’s more optimistic outlook. With major financial institutions exploring remittance solutions using XRP, the token’s utility in cross-border payments strengthens its argument for commodity status.
👉 See how regulatory clarity is shaping the future of crypto ETFs.
The Broader Implications for Crypto Markets
The potential approval of spot ETFs for Solana, XRP, DOGE, and other altcoins could have far-reaching effects:
- Increased Institutional Adoption: ETFs provide a regulated, accessible entry point for pension funds, hedge funds, and retail investors.
- Enhanced Market Liquidity: Greater trading volume through traditional brokerage platforms could reduce volatility and improve price discovery.
- Legitimization of Altcoins: Regulatory approval would validate these projects as legitimate financial assets, potentially triggering reevaluations by global regulators.
Additionally, successful ETF launches could spur innovation in derivative products, structured notes, and crypto-linked insurance—further integrating digital assets into mainstream finance.
FAQ: Understanding the Altcoin ETF Landscape
Q: Why is a 90% approval chance significant for Solana?
A: A 90% probability indicates strong confidence that Solana meets regulatory criteria—particularly around custody, market manipulation prevention, and transparency—making it one of the most likely altcoins to receive SEC approval.
Q: What does it mean if a crypto is classified as a commodity?
A: Commodities are regulated differently than securities. If tokens like SOL or XRP are deemed commodities, they face fewer disclosure requirements and can be more easily included in investment products like ETFs without violating securities laws.
Q: How do ETFs benefit average investors?
A: ETFs allow investors to gain exposure to crypto assets without managing private keys or using exchanges. They offer tax efficiency, liquidity, and integration with traditional brokerage accounts.
Q: Could multiple Solana ETFs be approved?
A: Yes—just like with Bitcoin, multiple providers can launch competing ETFs. This fosters innovation, lowers fees, and increases accessibility.
Q: Is Litecoin’s unchanged 90% forecast a positive sign?
A: Yes. Maintaining a high probability over time reflects consistent confidence in LTC’s compliance readiness and structural stability—positive signals for long-term investors.
Q: When might we see an XRP ETF launch?
A: If current trends hold, final decisions could come in late 2025 or early 2026, depending on SEC review timelines and market conditions.
Final Outlook: A New Era for Crypto Investment
As regulatory clarity improves and institutional infrastructure matures, the path toward spot altcoin ETF approvals is becoming clearer. Bloomberg’s revised forecasts reflect not just optimism—but data-driven confidence in the evolving relationship between crypto markets and financial regulators.
With Solana leading the pack and XRP, DOGE, ADA, and others close behind, the next wave of crypto innovation may not come from technology alone—but from financial inclusion through regulated investment products.
Whether you're an institutional investor or a retail participant, the growing likelihood of diversified crypto ETFs opens new doors for portfolio growth, risk management, and long-term wealth creation in the digital asset economy.