Bitcoin Price Metric Flips Red as Analysis Warns of 'Bearish Phase' Next

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Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the verge of entering a new bearish phase, as onchain data reveals a concerning shift in market sentiment. With investors appearing to reduce their risk exposure at current price levels, analysts are closely watching key onchain metrics for early warning signs of a downturn.

Among the most telling indicators is the movement of Bitcoin between derivative and spot exchanges — a pattern that has historically preceded major shifts in price direction.

Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse Signals Market Caution

A recently highlighted metric, the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), has turned bearish — a development that could signal weakening bullish momentum in the Bitcoin market.

Developed by onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the IFP tracks the volume of Bitcoin flowing between derivative exchanges (where futures and options are traded) and spot exchanges (where BTC is bought and sold directly). This flow offers insight into whether traders are positioning for upward or downward price moves.

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When large volumes of Bitcoin move into derivative exchanges, it often indicates growing bullish sentiment. Traders typically transfer BTC to these platforms to open leveraged long positions, anticipating further price gains. In such scenarios, the IFP metric rises and turns green — a signal of increasing market confidence.

Conversely, when Bitcoin begins flowing out of derivative exchanges and into spot platforms, it suggests traders are closing leveraged positions and moving coins to safer storage. This behavior is typically associated with risk reduction and often precedes market corrections.

As of February 15, the IFP has flipped negative — a shift that analyst J. A. Maartunn described as a potential early warning of a bearish phase.

“When Bitcoin starts flowing out of derivative exchanges and into spot exchanges, it indicates the beginning of a bearish period. This typically happens when long positions are closed and large investors (whales) reduce their exposure to risk.”

Historical Precedent: IFP as a Leading Indicator

The IFP isn’t just a theoretical gauge — it has a strong track record of aligning with major market turning points.

In March 2021, the IFP reached its all-time high, peaking just one month before Bitcoin hit $58,000 — a record at the time. That top held for roughly seven months before the market entered a prolonged correction.

Similarly, in previous bull cycles, each major price peak was preceded by a corresponding high in the IFP. The pattern suggests that when speculative activity surges on derivatives platforms, it often marks the final stages of a bullish run.

Interestingly, during Bitcoin’s recent rally to $109,000 in early 2025, the IFP did not reach anywhere near its 2021 peak. This divergence raises questions about the strength and sustainability of the current rally.

Some analysts interpret this as a sign that institutional and whale participation in the derivatives market remains cautious — a contrast to the aggressive positioning seen in prior cycle tops.

Whale Behavior Under Scrutiny

With macroeconomic uncertainty lingering and the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance, market participants are turning their attention to whale activity for clues about potential support levels.

Bitcoin whales — holders with large BTC balances — have historically played a pivotal role in stabilizing prices during downturns. Their buying behavior at key levels often signals confidence in long-term value.

👉 See how top traders analyze whale movements to time their entries and exits.

Currently, onchain data shows whales are accumulating BTC on spot exchanges, which could indicate preparation for a longer-term hold. However, their retreat from derivative platforms suggests they are avoiding excessive leverage — a prudent move amid uncertain conditions.

This risk-off behavior among large players reinforces the bearish signal from the IFP metric. While not a guarantee of imminent price collapse, it does suggest that smart money is preparing for increased volatility.

Macro Factors Weigh on Risk Appetite

Beyond onchain data, broader macroeconomic conditions are also dampening investor enthusiasm.

Recent inflation reports have pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. With interest rates likely to remain elevated, risk assets like Bitcoin face headwinds from stronger bond yields and a firmer U.S. dollar.

Higher rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets, making it harder for crypto markets to sustain parabolic rallies. This environment tends to favor consolidation or correction phases rather than sustained upside.

As a result, many analysts believe that even if the broader bull trend remains intact, Bitcoin may face a period of sideways movement or pullback before resuming its upward trajectory.

Is the Bull Run Really Over?

Despite growing caution signals, most experts agree that the fundamental drivers behind Bitcoin’s long-term growth remain unchanged.

Adoption continues to rise, with more institutions integrating BTC into treasury reserves and payment systems. The 2024 halving has reduced new supply, and spot ETF approvals in the U.S. have opened the door to massive inflows from traditional finance.

👉 Learn how macro trends and onchain data combine to shape the next leg of Bitcoin’s journey.

Therefore, while the IFP flip may indicate short-term weakness, it doesn’t necessarily mean the bull run is over. Instead, it could point to a healthy correction — a necessary pause that allows latecomers to enter and overheated sentiment to cool.

Market cycles have always included pullbacks, and seasoned investors often view them as opportunities rather than threats.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What does it mean when Bitcoin flows from derivative to spot exchanges?
A: It typically indicates that traders are closing leveraged positions and moving BTC to safer wallets or long-term storage. This behavior often reflects reduced risk appetite and can precede price declines.

Q: How reliable is the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) as a predictor?
A: The IFP has shown strong historical correlation with major market tops. While not infallible, it provides valuable insight into trader behavior and speculative intensity.

Q: Does a bearish IFP signal mean Bitcoin will crash?
A: Not necessarily. It suggests increased caution and potential short-term downside, but long-term trends depend on fundamentals like adoption, macro policy, and supply dynamics.

Q: Are whales selling Bitcoin now?
A: Onchain data doesn’t show mass selling. Instead, whales appear to be reducing leverage and holding BTC on spot exchanges, which may indicate strategic accumulation rather than distribution.

Q: Could Bitcoin still go higher after this signal?
A: Yes. Bearish signals often precede corrections, not endings. Once sentiment resets and liquidity improves, Bitcoin has historically resumed its upward trend.

Q: What should investors do in this environment?
A: Focus on risk management. Consider dollar-cost averaging, securing profits from earlier entries, and avoiding excessive leverage until clearer signals emerge.

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