The past week marked a significant surge in Bitcoin’s price action, reigniting bullish momentum and reshaping volatility dynamics across the derivatives market. As BTC climbed from $81,200 to $91,750—a 13% weekly gain—investors witnessed not only a technical breakout but also structural shifts in implied volatility, skew, and market sentiment. Ethereum, by contrast, remained relatively flat, ending the week nearly unchanged at $3,130.
This review dives deep into the key metrics, technical levels, macro drivers, and options market behavior that defined the week, offering a data-driven outlook for the coming weeks.
Key Metrics (November 11 – November 18, Hong Kong Time)
- BTC/USD price: +13.0% ($81.2K → $91.75K)
- ETH/USD price: -0.3% ($3.14K → $3.13K)
- BTC December ATM implied volatility: +5.2 points (51.8 → 57.0)
- December 25-delta skew: +2.7 points (3.2 → 5.9)
The sharp rise in both price and volatility reflects growing conviction in further upside, particularly as market participants position for potential regulatory clarity and macro tailwinds in 2025.
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Technical Analysis: Momentum Builds Toward $93.5K Resistance
Market momentum accelerated throughout the week, overriding early signs of overbought conditions on short-term charts. The repeated rejections at $90,000 earlier in the cycle appear to have built substantial gamma support—essentially creating a springboard effect that propelled BTC toward a peak of $93,250.
Currently, the $91,750–$93,500 zone stands as the immediate resistance area. A sustained close above this range could open the path toward $100,000 and beyond. Conversely, failure to hold gains may lead to profit-taking and a test of the diagonal support line just below current levels.
Should this support break, the next major floor lies between $85,000–$86,250, where strong buying interest is expected. However, a drop below this range could trigger a cascade of leveraged long liquidations, amplifying downside volatility.
Notably, both daily and hourly volatility bands are beginning to contract—a sign that the market may be entering a consolidation phase. If BTC fails to突破 $93,500 soon, we may see a decline in realized volatility. That said, our long-term outlook remains bullish, with a projected **Q1 2025 target of $105K–$115K**.
In the medium term (next 6 months), we anticipate a gradual stabilization as the market absorbs recent gains. Confirmation of this trend—such as tighter price ranges and declining volatility—over the next 1–2 weeks would reinforce this thesis and potentially pressure gamma-heavy positions.
Market Themes: "Trump Trade" Fuels Risk-On Sentiment
The so-called "Trump trade" remained in full force this week. The U.S. dollar strengthened against major fiat currencies, while Treasury yields climbed—typically conditions that pressure risk assets. Yet Bitcoin defied traditional correlations, surging past $90,000 alongside broad gains across altcoins.
U.S. equities also posted strong performance, with the VIX index plunging before stabilizing over the weekend—a pattern consistent with a healthy bull market pause rather than a reversal.
All eyes are now on Trump’s cabinet appointments, particularly the potential pick for Treasury Secretary. While Scott Bessent was initially seen as the frontrunner—viewed favorably by crypto advocates—Elon Musk’s weekend endorsement of Howard Lutnick shifted attention. Both figures are considered crypto-friendly, though Lutnick is seen as more supportive of digital asset innovation.
Recent additions to the shortlist—Kevin Warsh and Mark Levin—suggest the final decision remains fluid. Regardless of outcome, the mere speculation has reinforced market optimism that favorable regulatory developments could accelerate institutional adoption in 2025.
Meanwhile, MicroStrategy (MSTR) continues to signal strong underlying demand. After disclosing purchases of over 27,000 BTC around the election period, its stock trades at a premium—net asset value sits at 2.5x the spot BTC price—indicating sustained investor appetite for indirect exposure.
Even with outflows from spot ETFs like ARKB and BITB on Thursday and Friday, BTC held firm and reclaimed $90,000 by Sunday—demonstrating resilient support at key levels.
ATM Implied Volatility: Surge Reflects Breakout Conviction
BTC’s breakout above the $80K–$82K resistance zone on Monday night triggered a broad-based spike in implied volatility across options markets.
As price approached $93K, **realized volatility jumped into the high 60s**, followed by choppy price action between $87K and $93K. This rapid increase in actual movement caused the volatility term structure to invert—short-dated options became more expensive than longer-dated ones.
For example:
- The November 29 ATM implied volatility surged from ~47–48 (10 days prior) to a peak of 65.
- Longer-dated volatilities also rose due to time-weighted repricing across the curve.
A structural argument suggests that volatility may eventually compress if Trump advances pro-crypto regulation, attracting institutional capital that stabilizes price action. Much of this optimism is already priced in—yet despite large swings, realized volatility has not exceeded ~67.
Currently, daily ATM volatility oscillates between 55 and 65, well above the historical average of 45–50. Strong demand for year-end and January 2025 calls ($100K–$150K strike range) continues to prop up implied volatility, reflecting bullish positioning ahead of anticipated catalysts.
Skew & Kurtosis: Call Demand Dominates
Skew
Bullish skew expanded further this week, driven by rising demand for upside participation. The December 25-delta skew rose from 3.2 to 5.9, indicating increased premium on out-of-the-money calls versus puts.
Volatility exhibited strong positive correlation with price:
- When BTC dipped to $87K–$88K, IV across the curve compressed.
- Each attempt to break above $91.5K saw rapid seller retreat and IV expansion.
Additional upward pressure on skew came from:
- Unwinding of deep in-the-money call spreads
- Roll-forward of existing long call positions
Kurtosis
With heightened price swings, kurtosis (a measure of tail risk) spiked—signaling elevated demand for both upside calls above $100K and short-term downside protection.
Traders are hedging spot and margin exposure with near-term puts while maintaining aggressive long call exposure for upside capture—a dual strategy reflecting both confidence and caution.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why did BTC rally despite a stronger dollar and rising yields?
A: Bitcoin increasingly behaves as a standalone risk-on asset. Macroeconomic pressures that typically hurt equities or bonds are being outweighed by crypto-specific catalysts like regulatory optimism and institutional inflows.
Q: What does rising skew mean for traders?
A: Higher skew indicates more expensive calls relative to puts. It reflects bullish sentiment and suggests market makers are short upside options—potentially fueling further momentum during sharp rallies.
Q: Is the volatility spike sustainable?
A: Short-term volatility is likely to remain elevated as markets digest recent gains. However, if regulatory clarity emerges in early 2025, we could see a gradual compression in both realized and implied volatility.
Q: Where are the key support levels if BTC pulls back?
A: Immediate support lies near $89K–$90K (diagonal trendline). A deeper correction could find footing at $85K–$86.25K. Below that level risks triggering widespread liquidations.
Q: How does MicroStrategy impact BTC price?
A: MSTR acts as a proxy for corporate BTC adoption. Its continued buying and premium valuation signal strong institutional confidence, reinforcing long-term price support.
Q: What role do ETF flows play in current price action?
A: While ARKB and BITB saw outflows midweek, overall demand remains robust. Spot ETFs are just one component; OTC purchases and derivatives activity suggest broader underlying strength.
Final Outlook
Bitcoin’s breakout above $90K has shifted market structure decisively bullish. With momentum intact and volatility responding dynamically to price action, traders should prepare for continued range expansion—or consolidation—in the weeks ahead.
Key levels to watch:
- Resistance: $93.5K → $100K
- Support: $89K–$90K → $85K–$86.25K
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