Bitcoin Consolidates Above $108K, Technical Indicators Signal Potential Breakout to $117K

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Bitcoin (BTC) continues to demonstrate resilience, holding steady above the $108,000 mark with a 3% gain over the past 24 hours. The world’s leading cryptocurrency is now just 2% shy of its all-time high near $110,000, setting the stage for a potential breakout as key technical indicators align. While price action remains bullish, market sentiment and macroeconomic forces suggest a complex path ahead. This article dives into the technical signals, on-chain metrics, derivatives data, and broader economic context shaping Bitcoin’s next move.

Technical Analysis Highlights $117K as Key Short-Term Target

On-chain analytics from Glassnode reveal a compelling technical setup for Bitcoin. The short-term holder (STH) cost basis—a metric tracking the average acquisition price of BTC held by investors for less than 155 days—is currently at $117,113. This level acts as a psychological and structural ceiling, often serving as a magnet during bull runs.

According to Glassnode, “the upper boundary of the STH cost basis was tested only once in late May and currently stands at $117,113.” The firm refers to this zone as “the upper band of the short-term price action,” suggesting that once Bitcoin clears key resistance levels, a move toward $117K becomes increasingly probable.

👉 Discover how on-chain data can predict the next major Bitcoin surge.

This projection is further reinforced by the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. The MVRV extreme deviation bands indicate that Bitcoin still has room to appreciate before entering overvalued territory. The upper threshold sits around $123,000, implying that even a rally to $117K would not yet signal market exhaustion.

Key Resistance Zones in Focus

Technical traders are closely watching the $109,000–$110,000 range, identified by analyst Rekt Capital as a critical breakout threshold. This zone coincides with a long-standing descending trendline that has capped price movements since early 2024. Multiple retests have occurred without a confirmed breakout—making a daily close above this level essential for validating bullish momentum.

Rekt Capital emphasizes that “Bitcoin needs to close above the downtrend line every day and test it again as support to confirm the breakout.” A sustained hold above this resistance could trigger a shift in market structure, turning former resistance into support.

Another prominent pattern has emerged on the daily chart: a bull flag formation. Analyst Jelle notes that a decisive close above $110,000 could initiate a measured move targeting $130,000 or higher. Bull flags are typically continuation patterns, suggesting that after consolidation, the prior uptrend resumes with renewed strength.

Derivatives Market Reflects Cautious Optimism

Despite bullish price action and strong technical setups, sentiment among professional traders remains cautious. Data from the Bitcoin derivatives market shows muted enthusiasm for leveraged long positions.

The futures premium, which measures the difference between futures and spot prices, hovers at 4%—below the neutral benchmark of 5%. This indicates limited demand for extended bullish bets and suggests traders are avoiding excessive leverage amid uncertainty.

Similarly, options market data paints a balanced picture. The 25% delta skew stands at 0%, reflecting equal demand for put and call options. While this neutral stance is an improvement from the bearish skew observed in late June, it underscores institutional hesitation about the sustainability of the current rally.

This cautious positioning may actually be constructive for the market. With limited speculative excess, a breakout could occur with less risk of a violent unwind.

Macroeconomic Forces Shape Market Dynamics

Bitcoin’s recent price action unfolds against a backdrop of shifting macroeconomic conditions. In Europe, year-over-year growth in broad money supply reached 2.7%, marking its highest level ever recorded. Meanwhile, U.S. labor data showed a surprising 33,000 drop in private payrolls—a development that could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations.

However, global trade tensions are escalating. Former President Trump’s proposal of tariffs exceeding 30% on Japanese imports has reignited concerns about protectionism and inflationary pressures. Such geopolitical uncertainty often benefits Bitcoin as a hedge against traditional market instability.

In Asia, cryptocurrency demand has cooled noticeably. Tether (USDT) trades at a 1% discount to the U.S. dollar in Chinese offshore markets—the widest gap since mid-May. This discount typically signals capital outflows and reduced appetite for digital assets among mainland investors.

👉 See how global economic shifts are driving crypto adoption today.

Extended Consolidation Phase May Precede Major Move

Analyst Crypto Con’s cycle-based research reveals that Bitcoin has been in a prolonged consolidation phase since December 18, 2024—now lasting 195 consecutive days without establishing a new local high. Remarkably, only 36 days within this cycle have seen significant upward momentum.

Despite the extended range-bound action, Crypto Con asserts that “the cycle is not over yet.” Historically, such protracted accumulation phases precede explosive moves. The analyst suggests that once momentum resumes, targets between $165,000 and $180,000 could be within reach—aligning with long-term supply-demand dynamics and previous cycle projections.

This extended sideways movement may reflect institutional accumulation, where large players absorb supply before pushing prices higher. When these phases resolve, they often do so rapidly—sometimes within just 2 to 5 days—highlighting the importance of preparedness for sudden volatility.

Political Developments Add Uncertainty

Recent legislative actions in the U.S., including the passage of President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” have introduced new variables into the market equation. The bill includes a $4.5 trillion spending package and potentially raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.

Bitcoin proponents argue that increased fiscal spending could boost BTC’s appeal as an inflation-resistant asset. However, historical precedent shows mixed results following debt ceiling increases—sometimes leading to risk-on rallies, other times triggering risk-off behavior.

Adding to the complexity, the 10-year Treasury yield has declined from 4.50% in early June to 4.25%, suggesting shifting investor sentiment in traditional markets. This divergence may indicate that Bitcoin is beginning to decouple from traditional risk assets—a development that could enhance its role as an independent store of value.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Breakout Imminent?

The convergence of technical indicators points toward a potential breakout above $110,000. A confirmed move beyond this zone could propel Bitcoin toward **$117,000, aligned with the STH cost basis target. From there, momentum could extend to $123,000–$130,000**, supported by MVRV metrics and bull flag projections.

However, traders should remain mindful of caution signals in the derivatives market and broader macroeconomic risks. The long 195-day consolidation implies that when movement finally occurs, it may be swift and substantial—mirroring historical patterns where major price shifts happen over short timeframes.

Bitcoin’s ability to maintain support above $108,000 while building this technical foundation may prove pivotal in determining the trajectory of the current market cycle.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Q: What is the STH cost basis and why does it matter?
A: The Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis represents the average price paid by investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. It acts as a key reference point for short-term price targets because sellers tend to emerge near their break-even points.

Q: Is a Bitcoin breakout confirmed yet?
A: Not yet. While technical indicators are favorable, confirmation requires a sustained daily close above $110,000—the level of the multi-month downtrend line.

Q: How do derivatives markets reflect trader sentiment?
A: Low futures premiums and neutral options skew suggest professional traders are not aggressively betting on further gains, indicating caution despite positive price action.

Q: Could macroeconomic factors delay Bitcoin’s rally?
A: Yes. Trade tensions, capital outflows in Asia (reflected in USDT discount), and fiscal policies may introduce short-term volatility or hesitation among institutional investors.

Q: What happens after Bitcoin breaks $117K?
A: Historical patterns suggest further upside toward $123K–$130K is likely, especially if volume and on-chain activity increase alongside price.

Q: How reliable are long-term cycle predictions like $165K–$180K?
A: While not guaranteed, such targets are based on supply models and past cycle behavior. They gain credibility when supported by accumulation patterns like the current 195-day consolidation.

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