Toncoin (TON) is showing strong signs of an imminent breakout as its prolonged consolidation phase appears to be entering the final stages. After a deep corrective cycle that began in mid-2023, technical indicators across multiple timeframes now suggest that the bearish pressure is fading and bullish momentum may soon take over. With key support holding and chart patterns aligning favorably, TON could be on the verge of a significant upward move.
👉 Discover how market sentiment is shifting in favor of TON’s next big move.
Understanding the Corrective Structure
On the 4-hour chart, Toncoin has completed what appears to be a textbook WXY correction—a complex corrective pattern often seen before a strong impulsive wave resumes the prior trend. This multi-phase correction culminated in a final E-wave bottom on March 11, following the peak at $8.28 on June 15 of the previous year.
The price dropped below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at $2.35 but quickly rebounded, reinforcing this zone as a critical area of long-term support. Historically, such deep retracements often mark the end of extended corrections, especially when followed by stabilization and rising momentum.
A descending channel had contained all bearish action since December, but that structure was decisively broken in mid-March. The subsequent pullback held above $2.80—forming a higher low—indicating strengthening buyer interest even during weakness.
This shift in structure is further confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has emerged from oversold territory and is now trending upward. More importantly, it has formed a bullish divergence, meaning that while price made lower lows, the RSI registered higher lows—an early signal of weakening selling pressure and potential reversal.
With volatility remaining low—a common trait during terminal correction phases—it's increasingly likely that the macro-level correction has run its course. If $2.68 continues to hold as support, Toncoin may soon confirm the start of a new bullish cycle.
Bullish Signals on Lower Timeframes
Zooming into the 1-hour chart reveals an even more compelling picture. Following a five-wave impulsive rise to $4.20 on April 1, TON entered what looks like an ABC corrective wave within a broader falling wedge pattern.
- Wave (a) drove prices down to $2.84
- Wave (b) produced a partial retracement into a lower high
- Wave (c) appears to have concluded near the apex of the wedge
Falling wedges are classically interpreted as bullish reversal patterns, especially when they form after an extended downtrend. The narrowing price range indicates diminishing selling pressure, and breakouts typically occur in the direction of the preceding trend—in this case, upward.
Additionally, the RSI on this timeframe shows clear bullish divergence: price made a lower low, but momentum did not follow suit. This mismatch often precedes strong reversals and adds credibility to the breakout thesis.
👉 See how traders are positioning for TON’s next breakout opportunity.
Projected Price Movement and Key Targets
If the current setup plays out as expected, Toncoin could launch into a powerful impulsive wave—likely representing wave (iii) of a larger-degree uptrend. Wave (iii) is typically the strongest and most extended leg in Elliott Wave theory, often exceeding prior price highs with strong volume.
The most probable initial targets for this move are:
- $3.88 – 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline
- $4.12 – Breakout confirmation zone; sustained close above this level with rising volume would validate bullish momentum
Once $4.12 is cleared, the next zone of interest lies between **$4.50 and $4.73**, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the entire drop from the $8.28 macro high. This area could act as short-term resistance before any further extension.
Beyond that, the fractal target zone for wave (iii) ranges between $4.70 and $5.56, offering substantial upside potential for early entrants.
However, traders should remain cautious. A decisive break below $2.68 would invalidate the current bullish structure and suggest that the correction may extend deeper or evolve into a more complex pattern.
Key Levels to Watch
- Major Support: $2.68 (0.786 Fib retracement)
- Immediate Resistance: $3.88 (0.618 retracement of recent drop)
- Breakout Confirmation: Sustained move above $4.12 with rising volume
- Invalidation Level: Break below $2.68
- Extended Target Zone: $4.70–$5.56 (projected wave (iii) reach)
Core Keywords Integration
Throughout this analysis, several core keywords naturally emerge based on search intent and relevance:
Toncoin, TON price prediction, TONUSD, crypto breakout, Fibonacci retracement, bullish divergence, falling wedge pattern, and impulsive wave. These terms reflect both technical analysis interests and investor sentiment around TON’s future trajectory.
Their organic inclusion enhances SEO performance while maintaining readability and analytical depth—ensuring alignment with Google’s E-E-A-T principles (Experience, Expertise, Authoritativeness, Trustworthiness).
👉 Learn how real-time data can help you catch TON’s breakout early.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is Toncoin likely to break out soon?
A: Yes, multiple technical signals—including a completed WXY correction, bullish divergence, and a tightening falling wedge—suggest a breakout is imminent, especially if price holds above $2.68.
Q: What is the significance of the $2.68 level for TON?
A: $2.68 is a critical support level corresponding to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement of the prior rally. A break below this level would invalidate the current bullish setup.
Q: What are the next major resistance levels for Toncoin?
A: The immediate resistance sits at $3.88, followed by $4.12 for breakout confirmation. Beyond that, $4.50–$4.73 represents a key retracement zone.
Q: Can TON reach $5 or higher in 2025?
A: Based on projected wave patterns and historical momentum, a move toward $5.56 is feasible within wave (iii), especially if macro conditions remain favorable.
Q: What technical pattern is forming on TON’s 1-hour chart?
A: A falling wedge pattern is currently in place, classically viewed as a bullish reversal formation when occurring after a downtrend.
Q: How reliable is bullish divergence in predicting TON’s price movement?
A: While not foolproof, bullish divergence—especially when combined with structural patterns like wedges and Fibonacci confluence—has historically preceded strong reversals in TON’s price action.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. All investments carry risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.