The Bitcoin market continues to evolve at a breakneck pace, capturing the attention of investors, institutions, and financial analysts worldwide. As BTC trades around $62,000—with a recent spike nearing $64,000—the question on everyone’s mind is: Where are we in this Bitcoin cycle? Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy, offers a data-driven and insightful analysis that cuts through the noise, revealing why this cycle is fundamentally different from its predecessors.
A New Era for Bitcoin: The ETF Revolution
One of the most transformative developments in recent crypto history is the approval and rapid adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. Unlike past bull runs—2017 and 2020—this cycle is being fueled not just by retail speculation, but by institutional capital flowing through regulated financial products.
“The BTC ETFs took in a whopping net $576 million of BTC yesterday, with BlackRock alone seeing $520 million of inflows—their largest single-day inflow ever.”
This isn’t just a blip. It’s a seismic shift in how investors access Bitcoin. These ETFs have opened the floodgates for traditional finance (TradFi) participants who were previously locked out due to custody concerns, regulatory uncertainty, or lack of infrastructure.
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Why This Cycle Is Different
To understand the uniqueness of the current market phase, consider Bitcoin’s position relative to its previous halving events:
- 52 days before the 2nd halving (2016): BTC traded at $455, down nearly 60% from its prior all-time high.
- 52 days before the 3rd halving (2020): BTC was at $6,174, about 68% below its ATH.
- 52 days before the 4th halving (2024): BTC hovered around $59,330—only 12% below its peak.
This stark contrast shows that Bitcoin is entering the halving phase from a position of strength, not recovery. The market isn’t rebounding from despair—it’s building on sustained momentum driven by structural demand.
Long-Term Holders: The Backbone of Stability
A critical factor supporting Bitcoin’s resilience is the strength of its long-term holder base. According to Thorn’s analysis, approximately 75% of Bitcoin’s total supply is held by investors who show no signs of selling, even during volatility.
These “HODLers” act as a market stabilizer. Their conviction reduces circulating supply and buffers against panic-driven sell-offs. This level of conviction was absent in earlier cycles, where speculative trading dominated.
When supply is constrained and demand rises—especially from institutional players—the stage is set for significant price appreciation.
MVRV Z-Score: Measuring Market Valuation
Thorn highlights the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-Score as a key metric for assessing whether Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued relative to historical norms.
- Current MVRV Z-Score: ~2
- Previous cycle tops: Reached 8 (2021) and over 12 (earlier cycles)
This indicates that despite recent gains, Bitcoin remains far from euphoric territory. Historically, bull markets don’t peak until the Z-Score enters double digits. We’re not even close.
In simple terms: the party has started, but the dance floor is still half-empty.
The Untapped Wealth Management Market
Galaxy’s October 2023 report, “Sizing the Market for the Bitcoin ETF,” reveals an enormous opportunity lying ahead. There’s an estimated $40 trillion in assets under management (AUM) across banks, broker/dealers, and registered investment advisors that have yet to offer clients access to spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Breakdown:
- Broker-dealers: $27.1 trillion
- Banks: $11.9 trillion
- Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs): $9.3 trillion
Total U.S. Wealth Management AUM: $48.3 trillion
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This means less than 20% of potential institutional capital has even begun engaging with Bitcoin ETFs. As more platforms roll out access—driven by client demand and competitive pressure—the next wave of inflows could dwarf current levels.
The 13F Filing Catalyst
In April, the financial world will see the first round of post-ETF-launch 13F filings—mandatory disclosures revealing institutional holdings. Thorn speculates these could expose major asset managers quietly accumulating Bitcoin.
Imagine headlines announcing that firms like Fidelity, Vanguard, or even pension funds have taken meaningful positions. Such news would validate Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class and trigger a positive feedback loop:
- Higher prices → More institutional interest → More product offerings → More inflows
This self-reinforcing cycle mirrors how other transformative assets gained traction—from gold ETFs to tech stocks in the 1990s.
We Are Still Early
Despite Bitcoin’s impressive price action, Thorn’s central thesis is clear: we are still early in this cycle.
Several catalysts remain unpriced:
- Full integration of Bitcoin ETFs into wealth management platforms
- Broader financial advisor education and adoption
- The upcoming Bitcoin halving, which historically precedes major rallies
- Growing global macroeconomic uncertainty, driving demand for hard assets
Bitcoin is no longer a fringe experiment. It’s transitioning into a core component of diversified portfolios, supported by regulatory clarity, financial infrastructure, and proven scarcity.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is this bull run happening faster than previous cycles?
A: While price action appears accelerated, metrics like the MVRV Z-Score suggest we’re still in the early-to-mid stages. Institutional adoption is progressing steadily, not peaking prematurely.
Q: How do spot Bitcoin ETFs change the game?
A: They provide regulated, tax-efficient access to Bitcoin for retirement accounts, trusts, and advisory platforms—unlocking trillions in dormant capital.
Q: What role does the halving play in this cycle?
A: The halving reduces new supply by 50%, intensifying scarcity. Combined with rising demand, it historically triggers supply shocks that drive prices higher months afterward.
Q: Are long-term holders still confident?
A: Yes. On-chain data shows ~75% of supply remains dormant in long-term wallets, signaling strong conviction and limited sell pressure.
Q: Could retail investors miss out this cycle?
A: Not necessarily. While institutions are entering early, retail access through apps, banks, and advisors will expand significantly in the coming months.
Q: What’s the biggest risk to this cycle?
A: Regulatory backlash or macroeconomic shocks. However, increased institutional involvement may actually bolster regulatory legitimacy over time.
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Final Thoughts: Bitcoin Is Prime Time
Alex Thorn’s analysis paints a compelling picture: this is not just another bull run—it’s a structural transformation. Bitcoin is shedding its speculative label and emerging as a foundational asset in the modern financial system.
With ETFs acting as on-ramps, long-term holders anchoring supply, and trillions in wealth management capital waiting on the sidelines, the path forward is clear. We’re not at the peak—we’re at the beginning of a new chapter.
As Thorn puts it:
“Bitcoin is prime time now, and while it might be hard to believe, things are just starting to get exciting.”
At press time, BTC trades at $62,065—but the journey has only just begun.
Core Keywords: Bitcoin cycle, spot Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption, long-term holders, MVRV Z-Score, Bitcoin halving, wealth management AUM