Has the Crypto Bull Run Ended? Bitcoin Has Never Let Down Those Who Held On

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The recent pullback in U.S. equities has once again highlighted a familiar pattern in the crypto market: Bitcoin tends to follow markets down but doesn’t always rally when they recover. This divergence has fueled growing pessimism, with some voices in the space suggesting the bull market might already be over.

While sentiment has soured and short-term price action remains weak, history suggests a more optimistic outlook for long-term holders. Despite near-term volatility, Bitcoin has never failed those who stayed committed through cycles. Let’s explore why the current dip may not signal the end of the bull run—but rather a strategic opportunity.

Market Sentiment Turns Bearish: Is the Bull Run Over?

As U.S. stock indices weaken, Bitcoin continues to reflect macro risk-off behavior—falling with equities but lagging during rebounds. This trend has deepened bearish sentiment across social platforms and trading communities.

Notably, Zeneca, founder of ZenAcademy and The 333 Club, recently posted on X:

“The bull run might be over. I don’t think so, but it could be. You should have a plan just in case.”

He outlined a potential worst-case scenario: BTC dropping to $18,000, ETH to $900, and SOL to $28. While these levels seem extreme given current valuations, preparing for downside risk is prudent in volatile markets.

On the derivatives front, Greeks.live researcher Adam shared key options data:

These figures reveal weakening market structure. The "maximum pain" points—the strike prices where option sellers benefit most—are falling behind actual price declines, indicating bearish positioning. Implied volatility (IV) remains elevated ahead of the U.S. election, though the October 8 IV spike is gradually flattening.

Historically, September has been a subdued month for crypto performance. But this year’s caution appears exaggerated. Despite the gloom, many analysts still anticipate a year-end rally driven by macro shifts and improving on-chain fundamentals.

👉 Discover how market cycles shape long-term crypto gains—timing your entry could make all the difference.

Bitcoin and Macro Markets: A Complex Relationship

Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional financial markets has strengthened in recent years, particularly during risk-off periods. However, this relationship isn't one-sided—while BTC often drops with stocks, it can surge independently when macro liquidity improves.

Historically, September is one of the weakest months for U.S. equities. Even if the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting cycle as expected, Bitcoin may remain range-bound or slightly bearish through Q3 and early Q4 due to broader market caution.

Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, predicts a 7% to 10% correction in U.S. stocks over the next two months. Rather than signaling doom, he views this as a prime “buy-the-dip” opportunity—especially for assets like Bitcoin that thrive in low-rate environments.

Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer at Bank of America Private Bank, echoes this sentiment:

“The next eight weeks present an excellent chance to rebalance portfolios, diversify assets, and position for stronger performance ahead.”

Ulrich Urbahn, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy at Berenberg, warns of rising equity volatility due to stretched valuations and high investor positioning. Such conditions often precede short-term drawdowns—but also set the stage for renewed momentum.

Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, noted that inflation and employment are now in better balance than at any point since 2021—though he emphasized that the Fed isn’t ready to declare victory yet.

If equities correct by 7–10%, Bitcoin could see a similar or even deeper retracement—potentially testing support between $50,000 and $53,000. But past cycles show that such pullbacks often create ideal accumulation zones for patient investors.

In a Fed rate-cutting environment, capital typically flows into risk assets. Given Bitcoin’s finite supply and increasing institutional adoption via ETFs, a prolonged bear market seems unlikely—making any significant drop a potential buying opportunity.

Why Bitcoin Dips—and What Will Drive the Next Rally

While macro trends influence short-term price action, long-term growth depends on internal dynamics: supply pressure, innovation, and ecosystem development.

1. Supply Overhang Is Being Absorbed

After peaking near $70,000 earlier this year, Bitcoin faced substantial selling pressure:

This confluence created a temporary oversupply—a headwind no single catalyst like rate cuts could immediately overcome.

However, if prices remain range-bound through late 2025, this overhang will gradually dissipate. Institutions and whales can accumulate quietly at lower levels, building a foundation for future rallies.

2. Innovation Lags—but a Breakthrough Is Coming

One reason Bitcoin hasn’t led this cycle is a lack of native innovation. Much of the excitement—such as Ordinals and Runes—has been meme-driven rather than utility-focused. Meanwhile, Layer 2 developments on Bitcoin have borrowed heavily from Ethereum’s earlier innovations.

Ethereum itself has struggled during this bull run due to its Layer 2 fragmentation strategy. While scaling solutions improved throughput, they diluted liquidity and weakened network effects.

But change is on the horizon.

The upcoming Ethereum Pectra upgrade, expected in Q1 2025, could reignite developer activity and user engagement. Key features include:

This “temporary account abstraction” could revolutionize user experience—making DeFi interactions smoother without forcing users to migrate wallets.

These upgrades may not sound flashy, but they lay the groundwork for mass adoption by reducing friction in everyday crypto use.

👉 See how next-gen blockchain upgrades are setting the stage for explosive growth in 2025 and beyond.

FAQs: Addressing Key Investor Concerns

Q: Is the Bitcoin bull market really over?

A: No conclusive evidence suggests the bull run has ended. While short-term sentiment is weak and correlations with equities are high, structural drivers—like ETF demand and upcoming monetary easing—still favor higher prices long-term.

Q: Should I sell if Bitcoin drops below $60,000?

A: Not necessarily. Past cycles show that dips below key psychological levels often precede strong recoveries. If your investment thesis remains intact, consider accumulating instead of exiting.

Q: What triggers the next leg up in crypto?

A: A combination of factors: sustained Fed rate cuts, resolution of large BTC sell-offs (e.g., Mt. Gox), improved on-chain activity, and major network upgrades like Ethereum’s Pectra hard fork.

Q: How does Bitcoin perform historically after September?

A: October through December tends to see stronger performance than Q3. With potential macro tailwinds emerging by November, late-year momentum is plausible.

Q: Are altcoins dead if Bitcoin stalls?

A: Not permanently. While BTC dominance often rises during uncertainty, innovation cycles (especially on Ethereum and emerging L2s) typically reignite altcoin momentum in the following phase.

Looking Ahead: The 2025 Crypto Bull Case Strengthens

Despite current weakness, the foundation for a powerful rally in late 2025 and early 2026 is forming:

Bitcoin may not lead every quarter—but over full market cycles, it has consistently rewarded disciplined investors.

Rather than fearing the dip, consider it part of the process. Volatility isn't a flaw in crypto; it's an invitation to participate with clarity and conviction.

👉 Learn how top traders navigate market downturns—and position early for the next breakout.

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